What’s Happening?

With four races to go in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are right around the corner. While many are looking at the playoff cutline, another battle deserves just as much attention: the battle for the regular season championship. Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick are all in a tight battle separated by just 15 points, with Denny Hamlin a distant 43 back but still in position to strike if the cards fall the right way. With 15 playoff points awarded to the regular season champion, the pressure is on for one of these four to claim the top spot after Darlington. So who will win it? Let’s talk about it.

• The NASCAR Cup Series regular season runs from the Daytona 500 in February to the 26th race of the season, the Southern 500 in September. The top 10 in the regular season standings all earn playoff points, with the regular season champion getting 15 (three race wins worth).
• Kyle Larson leads the regular season standings by 10 points over Chase Elliott despite missing the Coca-Cola 600. Tyler Reddick sits third in points, 15 points behind Larson, with Denny Hamlin slotted in fourth, 43 points behind the lead. These are the only four drivers within a race’s worth of points (60) from each other for the regular season lead.
• The final four races before the playoffs are Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington. Each driver’s most recent result and win total will be shown to determine who has the best chance to claim the regular-season championship.

Kyle Larson: LEADER

Despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 for the Indianapolis 500, Kyle Larson sits on top of the regular-season standings by just 10 points over his teammate Chase Elliott. Larson has four wins on the year, including the most recent race, the Brickyard 400, and has nine top-fives and 11 top-10s. He leads the series in wins (4), top-fives (9), and laps led (763), along with eight stage wins. Had Larson raced at Charlotte, his points lead would likely have been bigger, as not only was he the favorite to win the race, but substitute driver Justin Allgaier drove the No. 5 into the top 15 before the rain hit the track.

Looking at the next four races, they favor Larson nicely. He has a combined six wins at the four tracks, including two wins at Richmond and Darlington from last season. He finished third in the spring Richmond race, and while he crashed out at Darlington in May, he won the first stage and collected 15 points. Larson has three wins at Michigan, although he hasn’t won since 2017 with Chip Ganassi Racing and has yet to find victory lane at Daytona. He’s been the fastest driver all year and controls his own destiny. With a good selection of tracks coming up, Yung Money is in a good position to win his second regular-season title.

Chase Elliott: -10

The only driver to compete with Larson for the regular-season points lead has been Chase Elliott. Despite only having one win on the season and leading the fewest laps out of anyone in the top four (179), he has made that up with consistency. Elliott has only one finish outside the top 20 all year (21st at Chicago), has zero DNFs, and leads the series in average finish (10.5). His consistency has allowed him to keep pace with Larson and even take the points lead himself whenever his teammate runs into issues. Hamlin nearly won the regular-season title in 2021 with the same consistency, and Elliott looks poised to do the same in the last four races.

While Elliott has been the most consistent driver all season, the next four tracks are hit or miss. He finished fifth in the spring Richmond race and inside the top 15 at both Daytona and Darlington. He finished 36th at Michigan last year after crashing out on lap 34 but has three runner-up finishes at the track. If Elliott is to win the regular-season title, he’ll need to keep his consistent run going but add some stage points and maybe a race win to truly solidify himself.

Tyler Reddick: -15

If there is anyone who is a dark horse for the regular-season championship, it’s Tyler Reddick. He has had a strong run over the past month-and-a-half to vault himself to just 15 points behind Larson for the points lead. The 23XI driver has finished top-10 in eight of the last nine races, including five top-fives in that span. His 15 top-10s lead the series and is tied with Larson for the most top-fives with nine. He’s been knocking on the door for his second win of the year and is a real threat for the regular-season title.

On paper, the next four tracks don’t look good for Reddick. His best finish out of the four is 10th at Richmond in the spring. However, Reddick was competing for the win at Darlington in May before getting into a wreck with Chris Buescher, which took him out of contention. Reddick has arguably been the fastest driver in the past nine races, and if he continues this form, he could be on top at the regular season’s end.

Denny Hamlin: -43

Here is the long shot. Denny Hamlin, who at the beginning of the year was right in the mix for the top spot, but a string of inconsistent finishes has dropped him to a distant 43 points behind the points lead. Hamlin has been one of the fastest drivers all year. His three wins are tied for second among drivers, and his eight top-fives are also second. The problem is Hamlin has been inconsistent recently. His 15.2 average finish is the worst among the top four, and he only has one top-10 in the last seven races. Hamlin must regain his form from the first half of the season, plus some help if he wants a shot at the regular-season championship.

Out of all the four drivers, Hamlin’s recent run has been the best at the remaining tracks. He’s finished top-five in three of the four tracks last time around, including winning at Richmond in the spring. He’s won at the remaining four tracks, with three coming in the last four seasons. It’s a steep hill to climb for Denny, but if he can put together a run and the three in front of him run into problems, it could be Denny Hamlin who comes away with the regular-season championship.

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