Menu
It’s been quite the dogfight at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings all year. The fight for the regular season championship (and the 15 bonus playoff points that come with it) is heating up as the regular season has less than two weeks left. Kyle Larson has paced the field for the majority of the season, but after the Hendrick Motorsports driver suffered a DNF at Michigan, there is a new face at the top of the standings. And in the wake of the Denny Hamlin L2 penalty that docked the driver of the #11 75 points (10 playoff points) and removed one of the major title contenders from being a threat, let’s look at the drivers within striking distance.
So, who are the drivers with a realistic shot at capturing the regular season title with two races to go? Let’s start by looking at the top five, as these are the drivers with the most realistic chances of capturing the title.
Byron started the year on an absolute tear. With three wins in the eight races of the 2024 season, it looked like Willy B had picked up right where he left off in 2023 and established himself as an early Championship 4 contender right away. But the driver of the #24 has gone winless since April at Martinsville and has had an up-and-down summer that sees him sitting 86 points out of first place. Byron would need to win and would need a lot of help to capture the regular season title at this point, but it’s not impossible.
The defending series champion has an outside chance at a regular season title this year, but it looks bleak at this point. Blaney does have two wins on the season, but with a rocky stretch in late spring and early summer ranging from Texas to WWT with an average finish of 22.0, it put the champion behind the eight ball. Things have improved of late, with a recent string of top 20 finishes and a win at Pocono mixed in dating back to Nashville in June. But it might be too little too late for a regular season championship without some major help.
This is where the battle really starts to get close. The top three have the most realistic chance of capturing the regular season title, and currently sitting in third place is the driver who has sat at the top of the standings most of the season. As recently as last week, Kyle Larson was the points leader. But with a brutal DNF at Michigan, the driver of the #5 has slid back two spots to third in the standings with only two races to go. Daytona has not been kind to Larson in his career, with an average finish and the World Center of Racing of 22.1, so salvaging a decent finish at the superspeedway and finishing with a strong run at Darlington in the regular season finale may be his best chance to recapture the points lead and the 15 bonus points heading into the playoffs. The 32-point gap to the points lead is far from insurmountable for the self-proclaimed best driver in the world.
So far, NASCAR’s most popular driver and the 2020 Cup Series champion has had a stellar 2024 season. Elliott only has one win earlier in the year at Texas, but the impressive consistency in capturing quality finishes has kept the #9 in contention for the regular season championship. With an eye-popping average finish of 10.62 this season, Elliott has himself in a prime striking position in the final two regular-season races. With career average finishes of 20.5 at Daytona and 16.7 at Darlington, they aren’t Elliott’s strongest tracks, but with solid finishes and a little help, the #9 could very well be at the top of the standings at the end of next week.
How impressive Reddick has been for 23XI this season cannot be overstated. With an average finish of 10.5, Reddick has performed better than nearly all of his TRD teammates on a consistent basis. Specifically, over the last seven races, there has been no one better than the driver of the #45. That stretch of races began at New Hampshire, and since that race, Reddick has an average finish of – checks notes – 3.28! Reddick was over 60 points back of the series points lead going into New Hampshire, and after his second win of the season last week at Michigan, he now finds himself in the catbird seat in the final two races of the season. Can he hold on? We will soon find out!
Who do you think captures the regular season crown? Will Larson make a comeback from his mistake at Michigan and regain what he held on to for most of the season? Will Byron or Blaney make an improbable rally, or will Reddick hold serve and capture his first title and carry serious momentum into the playoffs? Let us know your thoughts, and connect with us on our social channels at The Daily Downforce. We’d love to hear what you have to say!
