Who is NASCAR’s Next First-Time Winner?

LOUDON, NEW HAMPSHIRE - SEPTEMBER 21: Carson Hocevar, driver of the #77 Delaware Life Chevrolet, waves to fans as he walks onstage during driver intros prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 21, 2025 in Loudon, New Hampshire. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

What’s Happening?

When the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off, there will be 11 full-time drivers who have yet to win a race. But with a new year comes new opportunities, and several drivers have a chance to finally break through with their first win this season.

Connor Zilisch

Career Starts: Three

Best Career Finish: 11th – EchoPark Speedway Atlanta (2025)

We start our list with star rookie Conner Zilisch.

The 19-year-old enters this season taking over a full-time opportunity from Daniel Suarez, who won during his time at Trackhouse racing. Now, following a highly successful rookie season in the NASCAR Xfinity series, Zilisch finds himself the lone rookie in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series field.

Though he found quick success in the Xfinity Series, an equal performance in the NASCAR Cup Series seems unlikely, as moving from the Xfinity Series car to the NASCAR Next Gen car will make for quite the adjustment.

But Zilisch’s best bet to score his first win may come on a road course, something he has dominated in the lower NASCAR National Series, though his teammate Shane van Gisbergen, who totaled five road course wins in 2025, will likely prevent such an underdog win.

John Hunter Nemechek

Career Starts: 113

Best Career Finish: Fourth – Darlington Raceway (2025)

John Hunter Nemechek enters his third full-time season at Legacy Motor Club with high hopes.

When Nemechek joined LMC in 2024, the team was in the midst of major changes to its program, leaving the Chevrolet camp to join Toyota. That first season, the new gig was a major letdown for Nemechek, who had not raced in the NASCAR Cup Series full-time since 2020.

Despite all the doubts entering last season, 2025 would mark a significant improvement in performance for Nemechek and LMC, with his No. 42 team scoring a much-improved average finish of 20.3 (compared to his 25.4 in 2024), doubling their total top-tens (eight) from 2024, and scoring the driver’s first two career top-five finishes.

Following last year‘s great performance, this season may very well be Nemechek’s best shot to win a NASCAR Cup Series race. If there was ever a time to jump on the LMC hype train, 2026 might be the year to do it.

Ty Gibbs

Career Starts: 123

Best Career Finish: Second – Twice – Darlington Raceway (2024) – Chicago Street Circuit (2025)

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season felt like a learning experience for third-year driver Ty Gibbs.

The grandson of Joe Gibbs was coming off a career-best season in which he made the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs for the first time. Even though he ended the season on a tough performance skid, the No. 54 team seemed destined for another improved year in 2025, with Gibbs still chasing that elusive first win.

Unfortunately, the 22-year-old instead continued to struggle this past season, failing to match or improve on his 2024 statistics. Furthermore, he once again fell short of victory on multiple occasions, including a second-place finish at the Chicago Street Circuit to Shane van Gisbergen and a dominant performance at Bristol Motor Speedway that merely resulted in another disappointing night for Gibbs.

Even if Gibbs’ counting stats or averages once again fail to meet his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in 2026, he can still find victory lane. There have been a handful of occasions throughout his time in NASCAR in which he has been the best car on track, though luck was rarely on his side in these performances.

Carson Hocevar

Career Starts: 81

Best Career Finish: Second – Twice – EchoPark Speedway Atlanta (2025) – Nashville Superspeedway (2025)

Carson Hocevar is the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series rookie of the year, and if you were to survey NASCAR fans, the results might suggest that he is the driver most likely to win their first race in 2026.

Though he didn’t win last year, if you look at the statistics, one thing is clear: in 2025, Hocevar traded consistency for speed.  

From 2024 to 2025, Hocevar‘s average finish rose from 18.3 to 21.6. But, in contrast, during the 2025 season, he had three more top-ten finishes, one more top-five finish, and led over 100 more laps than he did during the 2024 season. This performance also saw Hocevar score his best career finish and his first pole.

While Spire Motorsports would likely want to see that average finish improve in 2026, a trip to victory lane would mean a whole lot more for the team and driver, marking a true turnaround for an overlooked prospect and a former backmarker team.

Ryan Preece

Career Starts: 223

Best Career Finish: Third – Twice – Talladega Superspeedway (2019) – Las Vegas Motor Speedway (2025)

This season, of the 36 full-time drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, Ryan Preece has the second-most starts without a win. But things are quickly heating up for the former NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour Champion.

Last year, Preece joined RFK Racing after a short stint with Stuart Horse Racing. During his time at SHR, many figured that Preece was merely a mid-pack driver; however, with RFK equipment in 2025, Preece scored his most career top-five finishes (3) and his most career top-ten finishes (14).

The short track ace also had some impressive runs at tracks like Richmond and Phoenix, plus, Preece scored his second career-high finish of third at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the spring.

NASCAR is slightly tweaking its short track package in 2026 by increasing horsepower. Though this may not be as drastic a shift for drivers in NASCAR’s highest level, if there is any difference over last year’s short track product, Preece could be the person to take advantage of this change and score his first career win.

What do you think about this? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on InstagramFacebook, and YouTube.

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What’s Happening?

When the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off, there will be 11 full-time drivers who have yet to win a race. But with a new year comes new opportunities, and several drivers have a chance to finally break through with their first win this season.

Connor Zilisch

Career Starts: Three

Best Career Finish: 11th – EchoPark Speedway Atlanta (2025)

We start our list with star rookie Conner Zilisch.

The 19-year-old enters this season taking over a full-time opportunity from Daniel Suarez, who won during his time at Trackhouse racing. Now, following a highly successful rookie season in the NASCAR Xfinity series, Zilisch finds himself the lone rookie in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series field.

Though he found quick success in the Xfinity Series, an equal performance in the NASCAR Cup Series seems unlikely, as moving from the Xfinity Series car to the NASCAR Next Gen car will make for quite the adjustment.

But Zilisch’s best bet to score his first win may come on a road course, something he has dominated in the lower NASCAR National Series, though his teammate Shane van Gisbergen, who totaled five road course wins in 2025, will likely prevent such an underdog win.

John Hunter Nemechek

Career Starts: 113

Best Career Finish: Fourth – Darlington Raceway (2025)

John Hunter Nemechek enters his third full-time season at Legacy Motor Club with high hopes.

When Nemechek joined LMC in 2024, the team was in the midst of major changes to its program, leaving the Chevrolet camp to join Toyota. That first season, the new gig was a major letdown for Nemechek, who had not raced in the NASCAR Cup Series full-time since 2020.

Despite all the doubts entering last season, 2025 would mark a significant improvement in performance for Nemechek and LMC, with his No. 42 team scoring a much-improved average finish of 20.3 (compared to his 25.4 in 2024), doubling their total top-tens (eight) from 2024, and scoring the driver’s first two career top-five finishes.

Following last year‘s great performance, this season may very well be Nemechek’s best shot to win a NASCAR Cup Series race. If there was ever a time to jump on the LMC hype train, 2026 might be the year to do it.

Ty Gibbs

Career Starts: 123

Best Career Finish: Second – Twice – Darlington Raceway (2024) – Chicago Street Circuit (2025)

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season felt like a learning experience for third-year driver Ty Gibbs.

The grandson of Joe Gibbs was coming off a career-best season in which he made the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs for the first time. Even though he ended the season on a tough performance skid, the No. 54 team seemed destined for another improved year in 2025, with Gibbs still chasing that elusive first win.

Unfortunately, the 22-year-old instead continued to struggle this past season, failing to match or improve on his 2024 statistics. Furthermore, he once again fell short of victory on multiple occasions, including a second-place finish at the Chicago Street Circuit to Shane van Gisbergen and a dominant performance at Bristol Motor Speedway that merely resulted in another disappointing night for Gibbs.

Even if Gibbs’ counting stats or averages once again fail to meet his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in 2026, he can still find victory lane. There have been a handful of occasions throughout his time in NASCAR in which he has been the best car on track, though luck was rarely on his side in these performances.

Carson Hocevar

Career Starts: 81

Best Career Finish: Second – Twice – EchoPark Speedway Atlanta (2025) – Nashville Superspeedway (2025)

Carson Hocevar is the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series rookie of the year, and if you were to survey NASCAR fans, the results might suggest that he is the driver most likely to win their first race in 2026.

Though he didn’t win last year, if you look at the statistics, one thing is clear: in 2025, Hocevar traded consistency for speed.  

From 2024 to 2025, Hocevar‘s average finish rose from 18.3 to 21.6. But, in contrast, during the 2025 season, he had three more top-ten finishes, one more top-five finish, and led over 100 more laps than he did during the 2024 season. This performance also saw Hocevar score his best career finish and his first pole.

While Spire Motorsports would likely want to see that average finish improve in 2026, a trip to victory lane would mean a whole lot more for the team and driver, marking a true turnaround for an overlooked prospect and a former backmarker team.

Ryan Preece

Career Starts: 223

Best Career Finish: Third – Twice – Talladega Superspeedway (2019) – Las Vegas Motor Speedway (2025)

This season, of the 36 full-time drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, Ryan Preece has the second-most starts without a win. But things are quickly heating up for the former NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour Champion.

Last year, Preece joined RFK Racing after a short stint with Stuart Horse Racing. During his time at SHR, many figured that Preece was merely a mid-pack driver; however, with RFK equipment in 2025, Preece scored his most career top-five finishes (3) and his most career top-ten finishes (14).

The short track ace also had some impressive runs at tracks like Richmond and Phoenix, plus, Preece scored his second career-high finish of third at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the spring.

NASCAR is slightly tweaking its short track package in 2026 by increasing horsepower. Though this may not be as drastic a shift for drivers in NASCAR’s highest level, if there is any difference over last year’s short track product, Preece could be the person to take advantage of this change and score his first career win.

What do you think about this? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on InstagramFacebook, and YouTube.