Shane van Gisbergen, who won five of six road and street races last year, will have the odds in his corner heading to Circuit of the Americas (COTA), even with a P6 there last season. But on the other side, there are some drivers who have often drawn the short straw at COTA and will line up on Sunday. Let’s take a look at both ends of that deal ahead of this weekend at COTA.
Daniel Suarez
Despite previous ties to Trackhouse Racing, whose lineup sits near the front of most road course previews, Suarez owns the roughest ledger among current drivers at COTA. Across five starts, the Spire Motorsports driver carries an average finish of 30.2, with a best of P24 after starting second in 2022. Last year, Suarez had started P5 but spun on the opening lap of the final stage, then got tagged by Connor Zilisch.
Across his five starts, Suarez’s average starting position sits at 9.2, yet races keep slipping through his fingers due to luck swings and on-track incidents.
Bubba Wallace
The 23XI Racing driver has five COTA starts and has suffered more heartbreak than highlights, with an average finish of 29.8. His best result on the track came in 2024, a P15 after starting P10. Last year also, he qualified second and locked out the front row with teammate Tyler Reddick. Wallace flashed pace early but burned through tires and slipped to P20. Even so, he did manage to bag a stage win.
Ty Dillon
The grandson of Richard Childress has yet to crack the code at COTA. In four starts, his average start sits at 33.5, with finishes hovering at 27.0. Last year, he climbed from P34 to P28, inch by inch. He has shown more life in lower series on the track, though, including an 11th in the 2024 Truck race. In 2026, now with Kaulig Racing, he enters after top-20 runs at Daytona and Atlanta, hoping to turn the tide.
Ryan Preece
Preece has had races where promise showed before slipping away. One outing saw him run inside the top 15 on pace (back in 2021). But last year, despite grabbing Stage 2, he fell to 33rd following a late pit call and a fuel pump issue. He started 28th, climbed through the field, hovered in the mid-teens late, then lost ground after a caution cycle. On raw numbers, he ranked 13th in total speed and late-run metrics, though.
Brad Keselowski
The RFK Racing co-owner carries an average finish of 18.2 on road layouts, yet COTA has not been kind. While his driver, Chris Buescher, has found a groove on left-right tracks, Keselowski’s best here is P14 from a P26 start in 2022. In 2025, he came home 15th after battling a cool-suit failure that left him needing help just getting out of his car.
This year brings another hurdle as he is recovering from a broken right femur, leaving his status for COTA up in the air. He has kept Joey Hand on standby, ready to swap mid-race if the shifting and G-forces at the 17-turn layout take their toll.
Shane van Gisbergen
Going by his road course history and previous runs, SVG walks into Sunday with the wind at his back. Entering the race, the No. 97 car from Trackhouse Racing rides a five-race road-course streak, a run matched only by Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon. He also paced the field for 301 laps in 2025, putting him at the head of the table.
Yet Circuit of the Americas remains one track where the trophy still slips through his fingers. Away from COTA, he has ruled road layouts, sweeping Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte Roval in 2025.
Even so, COTA stands as the odd one out. In his 2024 Xfinity debut, he led 20 laps and fought for the win in overtime before a penalty pulled the rug. In the 2025 Cup race, he showed pace, led laps, but finished P6, still knocking on the door.
Tyler Reddick
Already two-for-two this season after wins at Daytona and Atlanta, Reddick heads to COTA with momentum in his pocket. His numbers here point toward another swing at the front, with an average finish of 4.6 across five starts. The No. 45 driver has never finished worse than P9 at this track, and his average starting spot sits at 2.2, putting him on the front foot when the green waves.
Connor Zilisch
The 19-year-old has only one Cup start here, and the 37th-place result hides more than it reveals. His weekend last year split into two halves at COTA, where he grabbed an Xfinity win on Saturday before Sunday slipped away.
The Trackhouse Racing driver started P14 but got caught in Turn 1 chaos, picking up a flat and heading to pit road. After falling back, he clawed forward, set the fastest lap for a stretch, and cracked the top 10 by Lap 41. But then on Lap 50, teammate Daniel Suarez spun in Turn 20, sending Zilisch into a wall of smoke and into the stalled car, ending both days.
Yet, given his road-course background and Xfinity record, he could still give SVG a run if he finds his rhythm in the Next Gen car.
Alex Bowman
The Hendrick Motorsports driver has kept a steady hand on road layouts. He owns an average finish of 5.2 at COTA and 15.1 across road and street tracks, and even came home second in 2022 after starting P5.
In 2024 and 2025, he finished P4 and P9 despite starting P17 and P21. The No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 driver has never finished outside the top 10 in five starts on the track. In fact, Bowman and Reddick are the only drivers to log a top-10 in every Cup race at COTA from 2021 to 2025. Entering the March 1, 2026 weekend, Bowman looks to steady the ship after sitting 32nd in points following Daytona and Atlanta.
Ross Chastain
The third and final driver of the Trackhouse Racing team is also very much expected to be in the mix. Chastain showed in 2022 that COTA could be his playground, scoring his first Cup win here in the Next Gen era. In five starts, he has never finished outside the top 12 and carries an average finish of 5.6, along with a perfect lap completion mark at the circuit.
Last year, he started P9 but finished P12 after an early clash with Chase Elliott that put both on the back foot. Chastain later owned up, saying he felt he had wrecked both days and even moved aside later to let Elliott through.
But even with the Lap 1 drama, he fought back into the top 10 mix before settling just outside it.
