NASCAR is entering the final stretch of its regular season, and the Chase cutline is becoming increasingly tense. While drivers such as Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney are comfortably positioned, the drivers around the cutoff have very little room for error. One bad race of the final six could completely change the picture.
But for now, the three drivers who are inside the top 16 entering Indianapolis are:
Shane van Gisbergen: SVG moved up to 14th after finishing fifth at North Wilkesboro. With two wins, five top-five finishes, and seven top-tens in 20 starts, he has built a concrete Chase case.
However, his position is far from safe with six to go. He has only one Cup Series start at Indianapolis, finishing 19th after starting 11th, but his recent improvement on ovals could give him a chance to improve that record.
Joey Logano: Logano was outside the Chase field before North Wilkesboro, but his win completely changed the equation. The win and 73 points moved him up two spots to 15th and gave Team Penske another boost as the organization continues to find momentum late in the regular season.
Indianapolis could be crucial, though, considering his recent struggles there. After finishing second in 2019 and 10th in 2020, Logano has finished 34th and 32nd in his last two starts at the track after getting caught in accidents.
Austin Cindric: Cindric sits directly on the Chase cutline in 16th. He has no wins this season but has managed one top-five and four top-ten finishes, which have still kept him in contention.
His 14th-place finish at North Wilkesboro saw him slip two positions, but he still has a 33-point advantage over Erik Jones. That cushion gives him some breathing room, although a poor result at Indianapolis could quickly put him in danger.
Erik Jones: Jones is currently 17th, making him the closest driver outside the Chase field. He has five top-tens and two top-five finishes this season, but Indianapolis has historically been a difficult track for him. Across six Cup starts, Jones has an average finish of 28.2, with one top-five and one top-ten.
His most recent Indianapolis race ended in a 36th-place finish after starting third, so Legacy Motor Club will need a much better result this time around if Jones is going to close the gap.
Ryan Preece: Preece sits 18th, 15 points behind Jones and 48 points behind the Chase cutline. He has four top-ten finishes this season but no top-five results, while three DNFs have hurt his Chase push. Indianapolis could nevertheless be a promising opportunity.
Preece has a 21.5 average finish in four Cup starts at the track, with one top-five and one top-ten. More importantly, he finished fourth there in 2025 after starting 23rd, giving him a recent result that indicates the race can be a serious factor if RFK Racing delivers another competitive Ford.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is the furthest of the three drivers outside the cutline, sitting 19th and 85 points behind Cindric. Yet he arguably has the strongest Indianapolis results. In 13 starts, he has one win, four top-five finishes, and seven top-tens, along with a 12.9 average finish.
He won at the track in 2018 and finished second in 2017, while his fifth-place result last year showed that he can still run well there. The problem is that his current Chase deficit is significant. Keselowski will need a strong Indianapolis showing, and likely continued momentum afterward, to drag himself back into the postseason picture.
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