Short Track SHOCKER? | Analyzing Keselowski, Preece, Team Penske and More Ahead of Richmond

The regular season is almost over and Richmond Raceway is about to host a pivotal showdown. Tire wear will be the big equalizer, and with a slightly different compound than last year, strategy will be everything. Denny Hamlin is the clear favorite, owning Richmond like few drivers ever have, but with the playoff cut line tightening and a few lurking dark horses, this one could get wild.

• Hamlin has 5 Richmond wins and top-five finishes in over half his starts here, plus the best 2025 short-track performance score
• Bowman, Buescher, and Preece are locked in a razor-thin points battle, all within a single point in pre-practice simulations
• Possible upset winners include Keselowski, Hocevar, and Kyle Busch, each with track history or recent speed that could shake things up
• Team Penske’s form has been questioned, but numbers suggest they’re still contenders if they execute, especially Logano on short flats

With just two races left before Daytona’s chaos, Richmond could rewrite the playoff picture entirely. Whether it’s Hamlin adding another trophy, the bubble trio clawing for points, or a shock winner flipping the standings, there’s too much on the line for anyone to coast. And with SVG showing tangible oval improvement in qualifying, even the wild cards are getting faster. Buckle up — this one could get messy in a hurry.

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