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Playoff Cut-Line: Which Drivers are in Trouble Heading Into Bristol?

KANSAS CITY, KANSAS - SEPTEMBER 09: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pros Shops Toyota, walks the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on September 09, 2023 in Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Joshua Lipowski

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Following the Kansas race, the Playoff cut-line shifted immensely with multiple Playoff drivers having major trouble. Which drivers are safe, and which ones are not heading into the first cut-off race at Bristol this Saturday night?

Locked In: Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick

By virtue of their wins at Darlington and Kansas, both Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick have locked themselves into the Round of 12. Despite that, they still have something to race for at Bristol as they can still earn Playoff points by winning stages and the race on Saturday night.

Pretty Safe: Denny Hamlin (+49) and William Byron (+41)

While not mathematically locked into the Round of 12, both of these drivers should make it provided they keep their noses clean on Saturday night. In order to get knocked out, they would need to basically crash out and have the other drivers between them and the cut-line stay out of trouble. That is a lot to ask for, especially at a track like Bristol.

Stay Out of Trouble: Brad Keselowski (+33), Ryan Blaney (+25), Kyle Busch (+24)

All three of these drivers have some solid points cushions heading into Bristol, but they are by no means insurmountable cushions. If any of these drivers find themselves in trouble, especially early, they will be in big trouble. However, some stage points would help them, and, as long as they stay out of trouble, the amount of drivers between them and the cut-line in the standings should get these drivers into the Playoffs without too much trouble.

No Room for Error: Ross Chastain (+18), Chris Buescher (+13), Christopher Bell (+13), Joey Logano (+12), and Kevin Harvick (+7)

These drivers have the advantage of being in the Playoffs as of right now, but one mistake on Saturday could knock them out. The points standings are so tight near the back end of the Playoffs that any mistake will hurt, and that cushion you enjoyed will be wiped away. Even simply rolling into Bristol and slightly missing the setup could make for trouble on Saturday night if the wrong drivers earn stage points.

A surprise winner also moved the cut-line up one driver. Therefore, whoever is in 12th is not totally safe, and that drops Chastain, Buescher, and Bell’s cushion over the cut-line by seven points. This battle may be the one to watch on Saturday night.

Must Win?: Martin Truex Jr. (-7), Bubba Wallace (-19), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-22)

These three drivers currently sit outside of the Round of 12, but, pointing their way in is not out of the question. If some drivers in front of them have trouble, and these three keep their noses clean, they could sneak their way in on points. However, the easiest way to control your own destiny is to win.

A win locks you into the next round no matter what, and that means these drivers might as well approach this weekend as a “Must-Win”. If the points avenue opens up throughout the night, they can flip to that strategy, but for now, they should approach this as a win-or-go-home.

Absolute Must-Win: Michael McDowell (-40)

With a 40-point deficit and three other drivers in front of him, Michael McDowell has to win on Sunday. Winning both stages and the race on Sunday is the only realistic way he can make up a 40-point deficit anyway, so, there really is no other option. It is all about the checkered flag for McDowell on Sunday.

The Round of 12 will be fully set on Saturday night, and that should make for a very intriguing race. Will there be a surprise winner to flip the Playoff field upside down, or, will a favorite cruise home to a Round of 12 berth?

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AUSTIN, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 28: Shane Van Gisbergen, driver of the #9 Safety Culture Chevrolet, drives during the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Focused Health 250 at Circuit of The Americas on February 28, 2026 in Austin, Texas.

O’Reilly: SVG Wins at COTA

by Cody Williams

What’s Happening?

The checkered flag is out for the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series competitors at COTA, and it was Shane van Gisbergen who was left standing tall at the end of the race. His 5th career O’Reilly Auto Parts Series victory, it was his first at the track.

  • The opening stage was dominated by the JRM duo of Connor Zilisch and Shane van Gisbergen with the No. 1 of Zilisch looking to be the stronger of the two early on. Prior to the end of the stage, both short-pitted, making a long-term play for the win. SVG still managed to end the stage in 10th.
  • Austin Hill stayed out after a disappointing showing in Atlanta last week to collect some stage points. Also running strong in the first stage were Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, Brandon Jones, and Jesse Love.
  • Despite not being in his usual ride, Carson Kvapil was very competitive in his DGM No. 91 Chevy. Granted, the car was prepared by JR Motorsports ahead of this race, but it was DGM guys running the show. They did an admirable job, bringing the car home in the 19th position after falling off late. He’ll have 5 more starts in the car later this year to fill out the remainder of his schedule.
  • The second stage belonged to Sam Mayer. Finishing 2nd in the first stage and winning Stage 2, he had a mighty good points day today. Meanwhile, his former teammate Justin Allgaier also had a strong finish in stage 2. That’s a promising sign, considering his heartbreaks in Daytona and Atlanta, respectively.
  • Connor Zilisch had far from a perfect race today. Sure, he led a bulk of the opening stage, but mechanical issues plagued him later in the race. Extra time on pit road making repairs put him behind the 8 ball in Stage 2. This put the race firmly in the hands of SVG. He did manage to battle back to the top 5 before he was dumped by Corey Day and the controversy around that driver continues to build. Zilisch brought it home in 21st with significant damage.
  • With Connor Zilisch’s issues, it was more or less a cakewalk for Shane van Gisbergen in the JRM No. 9. He went on to win, scoring his 5th career win in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. He has an opportunity to sweep the weekend. He starts tomorrow’s Cup race in the 13th position.

Race Results

Caution Tracker
  • Lap 20: End of Stage 1
  • Lap 35: Baltazar Leguizamon spins
  • Lap 40: End of Stage 2
  • Lap 57: Sage Karam

Points Standings

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AUSTIN, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 28: Shane Van Gisbergen, driver of the #9 Safety Culture Chevrolet, Connor Zilisch, driver of the #1 Roto-Rooter Chevrolet, and Austin Hill, driver of the #21 Bennett Transportation Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Focused Health 250 at Circuit of The Americas on February 28, 2026 in Austin, Texas.

O’Reilly: Mid-Race Report, It’s the Zilisch and SVG Show!

by Cody Williams

What’s Happening?

The first two stages are in the books for the stars of tomorrow in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race at COTA. Predictably, Connor Zilisch and Shane van Gisbergen dominated the first two stages. As they short-pitted at the end of each stage, Austin Hill and Sam Mayer both went to collect stage wins, respectively. Here are the key takeaways from the race so far.

  • Austin Hill, after a disappointing finish to last week’s race in Atlanta following being sent by Ross Chastain, won the opening stage of the race. This was, of course, after Connor Zilisch and SVG short pitted, playing the long game for the win. Zilisch led a bulk of the opening stage, leading 12 of the opening 20 laps. On pit road, SVG managed to leapfrog Zilisch for the would-be race lead.
  • The only incident to note in the opening stage was when Jeremy Clements got off course. The caution did not fly, and he finished the stage in the 30th position.
  • Key drivers earning stage points in the opening stage include Austin Hill (10), Sam Mayer (9), Justin Allgaier (8), Brandon Jones (7), Jesse Love (6), Carson Kvapil (5), Corey Day (4), and Rajah Caruth (2).
  • The second stage wasn’t quite as cut and dry as the first. While battling for the lead, Connor Zilisch overdrove a corner, making an uncharacteristic mistake. He went over the radio to complain that it felt like his car was pulling to the right, an indication of a possible issue with his left side brakes.
  • There was a late caution in the stage as Baltazar Leguizamón suffered a brake failure and plowed hard into the tire barrier. He was okay but this effectively ended his day. SVG and Connor Zilisch both came down pit road during this caution. Zilisch had a slow stop as his No. 1 crew started to check out the right side of the car for potential brake problems. Sam Mayer went on to win the stage.
  • Earning stage points in the second stage were Sam Mayer (10), Justin Allgaier (9), Carson Kvapil (8), Jesse Love (7), Austin Hill (5), Sammy Smith (4), Brandon Jones (3), and Ryan Sieg (1).

What do you think about this? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

AUSTIN, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 28: Shane Van Gisbergen, driver of the #9 Safety Culture Chevrolet, and Austin Hill, driver of the #21 Bennett Transportation Chevrolet, lead the field during the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Focused Health 250 at Circuit of The Americas on February 28, 2026 in Austin, Texas.

What to Keep an Eye on in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Race at COTA

by Cody Williams

What’s Happening?

The NASCAR Saturday Double-Header continues with O’Reilly Auto Parts Series action from Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Here’s what you need to look out for and what to expect in today’s race.

  • Road course heavy hitters, Connor Zilisch and Shane van Gisbergen, are in the field today. You know what that means: another slobber knocker of a race between them as everyone else struggles to keep up. And, you guessed it: they both are starting on the front row with Zilisch claiming the pole in his No. 1 JRM Chevy. SVG is driving the No. 9.
  • Since Zilisch is in the No. 1, Carson Kvapil has been demoted to the No. 91 of DGM Racing. While the car is prepared by JR Motorsports, it won’t be his usual pit crew. Rather, his crew is made up entirely of DGM employees. So, there are a lot of unknowns for him heading into today’s race. He’s starting 6th.
  • Speaking of JRM, Rajah Caruth turned some heads in the first two races of this season. How will he fare on a road course? That No. 88 team is used to winning on these types of tracks. Keep an eye on him. Caruth is rolling off 19th.
  • Austin Hill bounces back after a disappointing finish last week in Atlanta, thanks to the ruthless bumper of Ross Chastain. He’s rolling off in the 3rd position.
  • Coverage for the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race at COTA begins at 3 PM EST on the CW.

Starting Lineup

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