What’s Happening?

Following the 2025 Daytona 500, Jeff Gordon made headlines for his comments about Kyle Larson’s struggles at specific Superspeedway races. While Larson’s troubles have been a strong topic of conversation recently, the stats don’t lie. For some reason, this generational talent can’t get a grip on this style of racing.

• Superspeedways are usually ovals that span 2 miles or more in length. For this reflection, we’ll focus on drafting tracks like Daytona and Talladega, which are both over 2.5 miles long. These tracks are famous for their drafting, which is complemented by tight-pack racing.
• However, since 2022, a new track, Atlanta Motor Speedway, has reconfigured its 1.5-mile oval to race in a similar manner on a smaller scale. Larson also struggles at the new Atlanta; this history includes a scary crash during the first race of the 2024 Playoffs.
• Larson has entered 48 races at these three tracks (including the new Atlanta) in his career. Despite this, he has a career-best finish of fourth two times at Talladega (Spring 2022 and Fall 2024.) Please note that some of this data includes starts set by the aggregate due to weather or the COVID-19 Pandemic.

“It’s Getting in His Head”

Following the 2025 Daytona 500, in which Larson’s teammate William Byron walked away victorious, Vice Chairman of Hendrick Motorsports and multi-time Daytona winner Jeff Gordon told the media his thoughts on Larson’s struggles.

“Gosh, the guy [Larson] is not perfect,” Gordon said. “I think now I’m starting to see it’s getting in his head. I’ve had a few conversations with him, and like, man, just go for it, just forget about it, don’t try to even overthink it.”

That day, Larson started 22nd, led no laps, and was involved in the lap 197 crash that sent RFK Racing’s Ryan Preece airborne. Ultimately, Larson came home 20th, the worst of all Hendrick Motorsports drivers.

As unfortunate as this finish was, it’s in line with his career average finish at drafting tracks, which sits at 22.9 following the 2025 Daytona 500. But what else can his finishing position tell us about Larson’s luck at these tracks?

Average Start and Average Finish: Higher or Lower?

Average starting position and average finishing position can tell you a lot about a driver. Ideally, a driver would like both numbers to be low, perhaps between the 5th and 15th range. However, you would like to see your average finish lower than your average starting spot.

However, having a high average starting position but a low average finish is common. In smaller sample sizes, this data can even tell you even more about a driver. If a driver consistently qualifies much better than they finish, then the issue could be related to skill, yet equally related to equipment or luck.

For example, in Larson’s career 367 Cup Series starts, he has an average starting spot of 11.6 but an average finish of 14.1. Regardless of this difference, we know that Larson is a winner, 29th all-time amongst Cup Series drivers, and a former champion.

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Larson’s Averages on Drafting Tracks

At the three drafting tracks mentioned above, Larson’s average starting spot drops from 11.6 to 15.4, a difference of 3.8 spots. Yet, his average finish drops to 22.9, a massive drop of 8.9 positions.

These averages are even more interesting when you break them down by track:

Larson at Daytona (22 Races)

• Average Start: 15.3
• Average Finish: 21.9
• Difference: -6.6

Larson at Talladega (20 Races)

• Average Start: 17.7
• Average Finish: 21.9
• Difference: -4.2

Larson at Atlanta* (6 Races)

• Average Start: 8.7
• Average Finish: 29.8
• Difference: -21.1
• *Stats Since 2022

The most interesting of these is clearly Atlanta, in which Larson has a 21.1 position difference in his average starting and finishing position. Since the track’s 2021/2022 reconfiguration, Larson has consistently laid down a solid qualifying lap. For reference, the No. 5 has started in the top 10 at Atlanta in every race since the fall 2022 event.

Unfortunately, since 2022, Larson has finished no higher than 13th at the reconfigured Atlanta. He has also finished on the lead lap once in six events and has not finished inside the top 30 since that 13th-place finish.

What’s the Problem?

Early on in his career, Larson was solid at drafting tracks yet encountered uncontrollable factors like wrecks and fuel mileage. For example, Larson was in the catbird’s seat to win the 2017 Daytona 500. However, on the final lap, Larson ran out of fuel on the backstretch, handing future teammate Kurt Busch the victory.

Of course, Larson’s main issue at these tracks is the difficulty of finishing a race. These tight packs can cause wild crashes that collect drivers no matter where they run in the field. Sadly, crashing is, of course, a major factor at play here.

In his 48 career starts at drafting tracks, Larson has failed to finish on the lead lap 28 times, meaning he finished on the lead lap just 58.3% of the time. He has also crashed out of 18 races throughout those 48 starts. If luck has anything to do with it, Larson’s luck at drafting tracks is surely bad, and that would get into any driver’s head.

However, sometimes, one win is all a driver needs. Larson still has five chances to break through in 2025. Perhaps a win could start a period of dominance for Yung Money.

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