Is Denny Hamlin on the Hot Seat in 2025?

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What’s Happening?

Denny Hamlin is the second-longest active full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver entering the 2025 season. However, his offseason of off-track storylines suggests that 2025 might be one of his toughest seasons to date. This question seems to get asked every year, but with everything going on in Hamlin’s career, is he actually on the hot seat at Joe Gibbs Racing this season?

Denny’s Offseason: Sponsors, Crew Chiefs, and Concern

Denny Hamlin’s offseason storylines began before the green flag dropped at Phoenix in November. Hamlin posted a video on his social media platforms thanking his sponsor of 20 seasons, FedEx.

This post all but confirmed the longtime rumors that FedEx was on the way out of NASCAR, as they had scaled back their support for some time now. However, when Joe Gibbs Racing updated their partner’s page in early 2025, not only was FedEx gone, but Mavis Discount Tire, who took over for the missed FedEx races in 2024, was also gone.

To compound his sponsor struggles, JGR made a surprise staffing change during the offseason. They announced that Chris Gabehart, Hamlin’s Crew Chief of six seasons, was stepping away from his role. In exchange, JGR moved over Ty Gibbs Crew Chief Chris Gayle to call the shots for Hamlin this season.

This move shocked fans and Hamlin. Gayle is a veteran Crew Chief who has struggled in his six seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series.

What Factors Are Pushing Him to The Hot Seat?

When assessing Hamlin’s status at JGR, three key factors must be considered: his age, his sponsorship, and his skill.

First, Hamlin, despite being the second longest-tenured full-time driver in 2025, is still competitive. However, this has not stopped JGR and Toytoa from developing young talent.

This talent includes the impressive 16-year-old Brent Crews, who is racing in ARCA this season. Furthermore, Toyota has called up two young drivers, Truck Series veteran Taylor Gray and multi-time ARCA winner Willliam Sawalich, to the Xfinity Series this season.

All three of these drivers have solid financial backing and sponsorship, which was a major storyline of Hamlins’ offseason. As Hamlin continued to lose sponsors this offseason, fans drew comparisons to JGR teammate Kyle Busch, who, after the departure of Mar’s Inc., was ousted from his longtime No. 18 for JGR prospect Ty Gibbs.

Busch’s departure from JGR also followed a difficult season on track, including a dramatic statistical fall-off from past seasons. While Hamlin’s stats did not nose dive like Busch’s, a strong start to 2024 padded them well, with Hamlin not winning a single race in the second half of the season.

So, all things accounted for, how safe is Hamlin’s ride for 2026?

Is Denny Safe?

First things first, Hamlin did sign a multi-year extension with JGR in 2023, and there is no indication that this is a contract year for the veteran. While this hasn’t stopped teams in the past, what happened to Hamlin this offseason is nothing new to Hamlin and the sport.

Losing sponsors is nothing new to the sport and is commonplace nowadays. Hamlin’s sponsorship woes didn’t last too long, as the recent RFK Racing departure King’s Hawaiian signed with the No. 11. JGR finished patching together the season for Hamlin with the addition of National Debt Relief on Jan. 30.

Furthermore, while Hamlin is aging, the young TRD prospects, barring an amazing breakout season, are nowhere close to the Cup Series level. As a veteran owner, Joe Gibbs knows not to let a Hall of Fame driver slip away from the team for an unproven talent. Even Ty Gibbs had to dominate the Xfinity Series before his promotion.

While Hamlin’s struggles last season seemed concerning to fans, they were more about a lack of winning than consistency. In the ten-race playoff, Hamlin had the third-best average finish in the sport, with a late-season penalty factoring into his playoff elimination.

While Hamlin’s situation at JGR is less comfortable than it used to be, his spot seems secure. However, fans know that there is nothing certain in NASCAR. If things continue the way they have been, Hamlin will face this question again in the future.

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Kauy Ostlien

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