Last week I, and those who tailed me, were lucky enough to hit on Alex Bowman Top 3, 5, and 10, leading to a profitable day. Unfortunately, this week, while it is still early, the books are not offering us any big value like we found on Bowman last week. Phoenix is normally one of the more predictable tracks on the Cup Series circuit, unfortunately books seem to have picked up on this and have been quite stingy with their odds. Books have also been slow to release odds for markets other than outright winners. In addition, the new “low downforce” package adds some uncertainty to the equation. So, while I will be keeping an eye out for additional value later in the week, right now I only have one bet that I have made, and it’s a small one.
Phoenix is the first short flat track of the season. The track is 1-mile long with just 3-degree banking on the straightaways and a maximum of 10 degrees in the turns. Green flag speeds will be significantly lower than what we have seen the past two weeks at Auto Club and Las Vegas. Traditionally the tracks that have the strongest correlation with Phoenix are Richmond and New Hampshire. My expected performance metric has the drivers and teams we typically expect to show up at the top. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney lead the way. Other short track experts, including Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Christopher Bell are close behind. However, I don’t see value on any of these drivers where their odds currently are.
In fact, I am very hesitant to make many bets right now. In addition to the short odds we have available, this week we also have to contend with a new “low downforce” package. While the Gen 7 car debuted to generally positive results in 2022, there is no doubt that short flat track racing suffered. In an attempt to make the short track racing better NASCAR is introducing a “low downforce” package and has made a number of changes to the specification of the cars that will be used at Phoenix and other shorter tracks. The changes include a smaller spoiler and modifications to the underbody of the cars. This creates a lot of uncertainty in a normally predictable track and so I want to see some on the track data before I make many bets.
I am by no means an expert on car design or what the specific changes NASCAR has made will do. So, if you want more details about them let me suggest taking a look at the Twitter thread below from Bozi Tatarevic, which covers the changes and what they should do in detail. Bozi’s conclusion is that the changes should reduce downforce by 15-20%, although I have heard higher numbers from others. The bottom line though is that the reduced downforce should make the races more competitive with more opportunities for passing.
The one driver that stood out to me when FanDuel released its odds Tuesday night was Aric Almirola. After looking strong at Daytona, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Aric Almirola in particular, have not had a great start to the season. Although Kevin Harvick has a pair of Top-10 finishes, the three other drivers have a total of zero finishes inside the Top-10. Last week at Las Vegas SHR, and indeed Ford in general, looked lost. However, this week there is reason to believe they will be better.
SHR’s strength in recent years has been short-flat tracks. Last year Chase Briscoe won the first Phoenix race and Kevin Harvick won the second race at Richmond while also nearly winning the first race there. Almirola didn’t have great finishes, but with the exception of New Hampshire, where he simply had a terrible day, Almirola has above average speed at all of the short-flat tracks in 2022. In 2021 Almirola won the New Hampshire race. Simply put, outside of superspeedways, this track type is where Almirola and SHR have the best opportunity to shine.
+6500 is out of line with every other book which has Almirola priced at +5000. Given the uncertainty with the new low downforce package I’m staying very light on this, and I wouldn’t bet this under +6500. However, if SHR nails the setup for this race, which given the team’s history at short-flat tracks is certainly possible, I expect Almirola to be in contention on Sunday. I’ve got .15u on this at +6500.
Four road courses on the schedule, and somehow that’s enough to spark one of the biggest debates in the garage. After recent comments from Brad Keselowski questioning the business value of road racing, the conversation has picked up serious steam. Is NASCAR leaning too far into it, or is the current balance about right?
There are valid points on both sides, from sponsorship realities to fan traditions to competitive diversity. Some tracks have gained traction. Others have struggled. The question isn’t just whether road courses belong, but how many make sense within a 36-race season. It’s less about extremes and more about direction. And with future schedule changes always looming, this debate probably isn’t settled anytime soon.
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Corey Day’s run-in with Connor Zilisch at Circuit of the Americas became one of the most discussed incidents from Saturday’s race, even drawing a response from Denny Hamlin as well, who this week talked about his support for Zilisch.
During the race, Zilisch dealt with brake trouble on his No. 1 Chevrolet but worked his way forward from the rear of the field, advancing from P29 to P4 in the closing laps. With five laps remaining, he engaged in a battle with Hendrick Motorsports driver Corey Day as they exited Turn 2, holding the outside line. But as they contested the position, Day moved up behind him, contact occurred, and Zilisch spun off course to finish the race in P21.
After the contact, frustrated, Connor Zilisch initially referred to Day as an “absolute hack” on his radio, describing the clash as part of the latter’s racing pattern. But the JR Motorsports driver later tempered his comments, simply saying he expects an apology from the young Hendrick Motorsports driver.
Given that Zilisch declined to escalate the situation, on the latest episode of his Actions Detrimental podcast, Hamlin credited him for calmly managing his response after the race, saying,
“Zillich was smart about this. He in his interview, he’s like, “I looked over at him thinking, come on over here. Come apologize.” And he said he just looked at him with a stare like, I don’t know what it is with these guys. Why, Why can’t they… youth?”
However, he questioned Day’s failure to issue an immediate apology. In fact, he said he was “floored” by Corey Day’s reaction, which involved staring at a frustrated Zilisch rather than apologizing.
The No. 11 JGR driver also raised questions about how Hendrick Motorsports evaluates developing drivers. Organizations invest with the expectation of returns measured in wins and titles, but when a driver continues to make visible mistakes, fans and especially other drivers will start to scrutinize. Hamlin pointed to the balance between development and production, asking how long it would hold.
The COTA incident was not the first time Day’s racing antics were questioned. Last week, during the Atlanta race, Day was involved in a multi-car crash on lap five after attempting a three-wide move that resulted in contact with Ryan Sieg. The move triggered a chain reaction that collected several cars.
Sieg responded over team radio, questioning both the decision and Day’s presence in the series.
Hamlin argued that drivers are allowed to make mistakes as part of growth. At teams with front-running equipment and title ambitions, time frames are shorter. But he questioned whether Day faces a deadline by season’s end or whether the assessment extends into the following year.
In Day’s case, results have not offset the incidents that have drawn attention. Hamlin referenced Kyle Larson as an example, noting that aggressive driving can lead to contact as well as wins.
Do you agree with Hamlin’s take? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
Bubba Wallace shared a message on X following the death of a close friend, writing about the weight of the news over the weekend.
“Makes you think about life and how precious it is… That tune… Nutshell- Alice In Chains Love yall,” he continued.
While Wallace did not name the friend in his post, one day before, reports confirmed that Chase Pistone, 42, had died. Pistone competed on short tracks and in NASCAR’s national ranks and later owned a Legends car. His family asked media outlets to share the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline number, 988. His brothers, Nick and Tom Pistone, confirmed the news to LegendsNation.com.
Pistone, who was the grandson of NASCAR driver “Tiger” Tom Pistone, built his racing career in Legends cars and Late Models before stepping into NASCAR competition.
Apparently, Wallace and Pistone raced each other in Legends cars around 2005. Pistone won four Summer Shootout Championships at Charlotte Motor Speedway, with two titles in the Semi-Pro and two in the Pro divisions. Wallace competed in both Bandolero and Legends categories during that period, winning 35 of 48 Bandolero races in one season.
Both drivers were regulars at the Charlotte Summer Shootout. From there, their paths moved toward the national touring series.
Pistone made starts in ARCA and the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series in 2005 and 2006, including an appearance with Green Light Racing at Martinsville Speedway. Meanwhile, Wallace moved into the K&N Pro Series East by 2010.
In 2006, Pistone made a start in the Nationwide Series at Martinsville, finishing 37th. After failing to qualify for the ARCA Menards Series race at Daytona in 2007, he stepped away from NASCAR competition until 2014.
He returned that year for eight combined starts in the Truck and Nationwide Series. In his final season at the national level, Pistone recorded a P9-place finish in the Truck Series race at Gateway, the best of his NASACR Truck career.
Beyond driving, Pistone owned CP Inc., building Legends and Late Model stock cars and offering leasing programs that included equipment, crew, and transport.
