With an ever-growing stretch of missed races, Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman faces a major uphill climb in his pursuit of making the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase. So what will it take for the veteran driver to rebound in his 2026 season?
Alex Bowman has already missed three full races this season due to his diagnosis of vertigo that came after he stepped out of the COTA race, where Myatt Snider took over for the final 25 laps. Since then, Bowman has missed Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Darlington, leaving the No. 48 seat in a state of rotation.
Anthony Alfredo stepped in at Phoenix Raceway in March 2026, while Justin Allgaier has carried the load at Las Vegas and the races that followed. Last Tuesday, the team confirmed Bowman will also miss the next two stops at Martinsville and Bristol, extending a spell that has kept him on the sidelines.
Jeff Andrews, president and general manager of Hendrick Motorsports, said the call comes with the driver’s health top of mind, as symptoms continue to linger.
While HMS has scrambled to recoup as much ground as possible in the owners’ points, Bowman faces an uphill climb to make the chase, not even two months into the new year.
The numbers paint a gloomy scene for Bowman this season. The HMS driver currently sits 36th in the standings, last among full-time drivers, with 23 points to his name.
With each missed race, the gap is widening, and the road back is growing steeper. A pair of early crashes already put him behind the eight ball, and when he stepped out mid-race at COTA due to vertigo, he sank to the foot of the table after three rounds.
The hole deepened again when he missed Darlington, and it will widen further with two more absences on the schedule. By the time he returns, given that he is still on schedule, Bowman will be chasing the field with little margin for error and no room to coast.
This pas off season, the NASCAR rulebook changed, and not in Bowman’s favor.
The old “win, and you’re in” safety net is gone. Now, a driver must sit inside the top 16 in points after 26 races to secure a place in the postseason. Every lap, every stage, every finish factors into that total, and there is no single day that can wipe the slate clean.
If he returns to Kansas, he will have 18 races to make up lost ground and drag himself back into contention.
The 16th-place cutoff at the end of the regular season (from the past four seasons) has hovered around 577 points, which breaks down to over 22 points per regular season race for a driver who runs every event.
That can come from a 15th-place finish with no stage points, a 25th-place finish with 10 stage points, or a 35th-place finish with 20 stage points.
Bowman, however, does not have the luxury of time.
To reach the same mark in fewer races, given he already has 23 points, Bowman would need to average about 31 points per outing on his return at Kansas in the next 18 races. That translates to an eighth-place finish with no stage points, an 18th-place finish with 10 stage points, or a 28th-place finish with 20 stage points, a pace that leaves no room for slip-ups.
But if he can win and win a lot, that goal becomes a little bit easier, as in 2026, drivers are awarded 15 more points for a win than they were in 2025. Meaning that Bowman, with several wins, could put together enough extra points to make up for this stretch.
The odds are definitely against the No. 48 driver, but the door is not locked. The margins are thin, and the calendar waits for no one.
Yet, Bowman’s Chase hopes hang by a thread, not cut, not tied, and are still very much in play if he can turn every start into a step forward.
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