The Odds Do Not Favor a Christopher Bell Four-Peat
What’s Happening? Christopher Bell has a chance to join an elite list of NASCAR Cup Series drivers this weekend in Las…
In a story straight out of the NASCAR history books, fans are noticing that despite winning three of the first four races this season, Christopher Bell sits second in points to William Byron. So, how is Byron beating out Bell, and what can the current points standings tell us about winning in NASCAR?
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell failed to make the Championship Four last fall after a controversial finish to the Playoffs. Rather than letting his frustration out during a post-race interview or that next weekend in Phoenix, Bell bottled up his frustrations and poured them onto the NASCAR scene in 2025.
Bell is off to a career-best start this season, with three wins in the first four races. The only blemish on his record is a late-race accident in the Daytona 500. Bell’s current winning streak is impressive, yet the driver who has won 75% of Cup Series races in 2025 still sits second in regular-season points.
While some fans are focused on the long-term strategy behind this current standing, others are concerned as to why a driver who won multiple races to open the season is not in first place.
What’s Happening? Christopher Bell has a chance to join an elite list of NASCAR Cup Series drivers this weekend in Las…
Fans on both sides of the argument, those who are concerned about Bell’s second-place ranking and those who aren’t, are summoning the name of the 2003 NASCAR Cup Series season.
This year marked the end of the Latford system, also known as the Winston Cup Points system. This 36-race points system focused heavily on consistency. While there are a handful of reasons and theories for why NASCAR made this move, there are two statistical reasons.
The first and least important reason, in regard to our conversation, is to make points count till the very end. Historically, under the Latford system, drivers could win the title prematurely. While this could be multiple races in advance of the finale, 2003 Champion Matt Kenseth won the title only one race early.
NASCAR addressed this issue with the Chase version of the playoff format in 2004.
However, they also addressed another issue fans had with Kenseth’s Cup win. That season, Kenseth won the Cup with one win, 11 top-fives, and 25 top-tens. He tied seven other drivers for last in wins that season.
In comparison, Ryan Newman, who finished sixth, won eight races, had more top-fives, and three fewer top-tens than Kenseth. The issue here is one that drivers and fans complained about throughout the history of the original Latford System; essentially, consistency was king, and winning races didn’t matter in the long run. It just paid more.
NASCAR addressed this in 2004 as well by giving ten more points to a race winner from 2004 to 2006 and 15 points from 2007 to 2010. However, throughout that time, the driver who won the most races still failed to win the title five times. This is partially due to the time and place of winning a Championship in a playoff format like the Chase. However, this boost in points was welcomed by fans.
Throughout the rest of Chase’s life and into the Playoff Era in 2014, the winning driver still received more points between them and second place (5) than the majority of the rest of the field (1).
This technically ensured that the race winner walked out of every race weekend with the most points. That was until 2017 when NASCAR introduced stages. These stages, three in each race (except the Coca-Cola 600), would award points to the top ten finishers of each stage.
This is how Byron has Bell’s number, both literally and figuratively. Without stage points, Bell would have 126 points, 14 more than Byron’s 116. Stages were introduced for several reasons; however, as it applies to our topic, they have inadvertently led to a points system in which a consistent winner is being beaten out by a consistent driver.
In fact, even under the Winston Cup Points System, Bell should (theoretically) be the points leader.
Now, stage points could factor into the long term and specifically the playoffs. However, once the playoffs start, if Bell keeps up his pace, he will more than likely be comfortable for a majority of those ten races.
On the other hand, this could be a strategy. Several drivers are very open about their plans to focus on stage points and consistency throughout the season. Byron, who is already locked into the playoffs, could be taking this route while Bell focuses on winning.
While it is puzzling that Bell sits in second place after a record-breaking start to the season in the Next Generation era, it is by no means time to sound the alarms just yet.
Tell us your thoughts on this! Join the discussion on Discord or X, and remember to follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube for more updates.
