The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Ambetter Health 400. Three years ago, ahead of the 2022 season, Atlanta was reconfigured. The 1.54-mile-long quad-oval had its banking increased. The track now features 28 degrees of banking in the turns and five degrees of banking in the straightaways. This has made the track a truly unique “mini-superspeedway.” Given the steep banking, it is critical for drivers to work well in the draft. Being able to receive and give pushes is critical to success here.
As drafting is a critical feature of Atlanta, it should be no surprise that Team Penske has thrived here. Over the
Given the unusual configuration of the track and the unpredictability of drafting, trying to project Atlanta can be tricky. A driver’s skill and performance at the true drafting tracks, Daytona and Talladega, is important. However, the racing at Atlanta differs from those tracks as it’s around a mile shorter. Atlanta is also a narrower track, making passes harder to come by. So, when building the Win The Race SIM FMV for this race, my focus was on Atlanta itself. Although I did blend in some pure drafting tracks, particularly since the only race we have seen so far in 2025 was the Daytona 500.
Todd Gilliland hasn’t had great finishes at Atlanta. In his six starts here, he has finished 27th, 17th, 15th, 16th, 26th, and 27th. However, last spring, he was 10th in stage 1 and sixth in stage 2. He also led 58 laps in the race. Unfortunately, late-race chaos ended his shot at the win, and he limped home in 26th.
This has been a trend for Gilliland at Atlanta. Run well, only to have a mess not of his own making ruin his finish. Over the last four Atlanta races, Gilliland has had an average running position of 14.14. That is the ninth-best in the Cup Series. Making this even more impressive is that incidents have hurt him at the end of races, yet he has still completed 99.59% of all laps in those races. Of the drivers with a better average running position here, only Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney (1st and 3rd in ARP) have completed more laps (Joey Logano, who is 2nd in ARP, is close at 99.18%).
Only three drivers, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, and Noah Gragson, have a bigger negative gap between their average running position and average finishing position than Gilliland. To me, Gilliland’s completed laps and average running position suggest that he has simply been on the wrong side of variance here. Moreover, given his history in the Truck Series (two Top 3 finishes in seven drafting starts), there is no reason to think he cannot avoid issues in drafting races.
The Win The Race SIM FMV agrees with my assessment. In 20,000 simulations of the Ambetter Health 400, the SIM FMV has Gilliland finishing in the Top 5 almost 20% of the time. Our simulations have had him finishing Top 3 over 12% of the time and even winning in almost 5% of the races. Fortunately for us, the books are focused on his unlucky finishing history, not his potential, so there is value to be found here. The gap is big enough that even if our simulations are overly bullish on Todd’s upside, I am confident in the value we are seeing.
Atlanta is a drafting track with the potential for chaos. So, I’m going to keep my bets a bit smaller than normal. But I still like Todd’s odds right now enough that I want to get some bets on him before qualifying on Saturday.
I’m starting with .2u on Gilliland Top 3 +1300 at Hard Rock Sportsbook. The implied odds of +1300 are just 7.14%, well clear of our 12.57% odds for Gilliland to finish Top 3. If you don’t have access to Hard Rock, at Bet365, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook, Gilliland is +1200, or just 7.69% implied. I would play this down to +1050.
I’m also betting .4u on Gilliland Top 5 at +600 (14.29% implied) at Bet365. If you don’t have access to Bet365, he is available at +550 at FanDuel and DraftKings. However, +550 would be my floor on this bet.
At FanDuel, Gilliland is also +4100, or 2.38% implied to win, which is good value. However I’m not going to bet on him to win. I have a Gilliand win already covered with my bet on Ford +150, which I took earlier this week for reasons explained in the Win The Race discord. (This number is no longer available at Caesars or ESPN, but Bet365 does now have Ford +150 available).
