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Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS) Oval for the first time since 2024. The oval is 2.5 miles long and rectangular. Banking in the turns is minimal, at just 9.2 degrees, and there is no banking on the straightaway.
The Cup Series has not raced at the IMS Oval in four years, so there is no Gen 7 data to examine. This means that in handicapping the race, we are almost entirely reliant on data from comparable tracks. The three most commonly referenced tracks as comps for the IMS Oval are the former Auto Club, Michigan International Speedway, and Pocono Raceway.
Pocono is the most relevant of the three comp tracks for a few reasons. First, turn two at Pocono is modeled after the turns at the IMS Oval. In addition, the other turns have banking closer to the banking at the IMS Oval at 6 and 14 degrees. The turns at Auto Club were all banked at 14 degrees. At Michigan the turns are banked at 18 degrees. Pocono is also the same length as the IMS Oval at 2.5 miles, while the other two tracks are 2 miles long. Finally, this year’s Cup race at Pocono was last weekend. The most recent races at the other two tracks were in 2023.
Outside of Ryan Blaney, Ford did not have a lot of speed in the intermediate package to start 2024. The tide started to turn at Darlington. This past week at Pocono, Ryan Blaney won. Joey Logano was fifth, Brad Keselowski was sixth, and Chris Buescher was 11th and battling for a Top 10. The IMS Oval is a track where Ford and Joey Logano specifically have had a lot of success. The final three races here were won by Ford, with Brad Keselowski (running for Penske) winning once and Kevin Harvick picking up a pair of wins.
Joey Logano hasn’t won here, but since joining Team Penske, he has finished inside the Top 10 in seven of eight races and inside the Top 5 in half of those races. He also has a pair of second-place finishes. His worst finish here with Penske is 13th. Finally, he has led laps in six of the eight races. As discussed above, Pocono is a good comp for Indy.
Lognao’s fifth-place finish on Sunday at Pocono was no fluke. His average running position was 9.22, seventh best in the race. His incident-adjusted speed was also inside the Top 10. In addition, Logano has had speed at other flat tracks, which, while there is a major difference between tracks like Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire, suggests that Logano is at his best this year on flat tracks. So, with all of this in mind, I’m doing a ladder on Logano this weekend.
Logano has scored a Top 5 in half of his races here with Team Penske. He has run 35.9% of his laps inside the Top 5 at longer, flatter tracks in the Gen 7 car. In the seven Gen 7 races at this track type, he has three Top 5 finishes, including last week. His average running position at these tracks in the Gen 7 car is fourth best in the Cup Series. All of this points to him finishing inside the Top 5 more than 31.25% of the time, which is implied by +220.
I have .5u on this to win 1.125u and would bet it down to +200.
Not withstanding the speed that Ford has started to bring to the track over the past few months, I want to take Logano in the Top Ford market rather than win outright. By shifting to the Top Ford market, we significantly cut down on the number of highly competitive cars that Logano will have to beat for us to cash the bet.
Among all drivers, Logano has the fourth-best average running position at this track type in the Gen 7 car at 10.87, over three spots behind series leader Denny Hamlin. Among Ford’s, Logano’s average running position is first and is nearly a full position ahead of Ryan Blaney in second place. Last week at Pocono, Logano’s average running position was seventh overall, four positions behind leader Denny Hamlin. Among Ford’s, however, he was third and was just 2.5 positions behind leader Ryan Blaney.
I have .5u on this to win 2.5u. I would not bet it under +500.
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