Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, Texas, for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). This will be the fifth year NASCAR has raced at COTA. However, this will be the first year running this specific layout. NASCAR will now be running a shorter 18-turn, 2.356-mile circuit rather than the full 3.426-mile 20-turn loop.
A new tire will add to the challenge of the new configuration. Goodyear is bringing a softer tire to the track that will hopefully have greater tire wear. This is important because the circuit was repaved over the off-season. As such, the surface itself will have less wear than in past years.
There will be two practice sessions on Saturday to help teams compensate for all of the changes at the track. The Cup Series will be split into two groups, each with two 20-minute sessions of practice. So we should get some good practice data to look at ahead of the race to see which teams have brought speed. Given all the changes we do want to be cautious with our mid-week bets. Still, I do see some value on the board that I want to lock in now.
Several years ago, before his first win here at COTA, I wrote something like, “I know, it’s Ross Chastain” before I went into my argument for him to win at +4000. That said, in the time since, it’s become clear that Ross Chastain is a very talented road course driver. In 2024, he finished Top 10 in three of four road course races, including two Top 5 finishes. He has been particularly good at COTA. In four starts, he finished fourth, first, fourth, and seventh last year. He has led laps in three of the four races. Given his overall road course performance and his strength at COTA Ross is the third highest-rated driver in the Win The Race pre-practice and qualifying scores.
The Win The Race SIM FMV shows value on Ross across the board. He is showing outright value at most books. However, given the overall strength of the field, since he is also showing value in his Top 3 odds at FanDuel and his Top 5 odds at Bet365, I want to play these slightly more forgiving markets.
I’m going to allocate a unit across the two bets, with .6u on the Top 5 and .4u on the Top 3. I would bet these down to +350 for the Top 3 and +190 for the Top 5.
Shane Van Gisbergen is arguably the best overall road course driver in the Cup Series. In 2024, he had the best incident-adjusted speed at road courses regardless of whether he was in the 13 or 16. Although his performance in the Cup Series at COTA was underwhelming, He was among the series leaders in true average running position and Win The Race’s True Performance Rankings. However, some bad luck and the overall level of talent in the Cup Series kept him out of the win column. Despite this, the books are giving SVG a lot of (deserved) respect this week.
While SVG has earned respect, and he is rightfully the favorite, the books have overdone it in head-to-head matchups. His matchup with Kyle Larson at Bet365 is showing particular value. The Win The Race SIM FMV Head to Head matchup evaluator does have SVG as the favorite. Our 20,000 simulations have Larson winning this matchup around 46% of the time. That translates to fair odds of +116. However, Bet365 is offering +160 on Kyle Larson, and that’s far better odds than the +116 that we show as fair value.
I fully expect SVG to win this matchup more often than not. At +160, though, Larson would only need to beat SVG around 39% of the time for the bet to be profitable. Last year at road courses in the Cup Series, Larson won the matchup three of four times. Larson also beat SVG at COTA in the Xfinity Series. All factors considered I fully agree with the SIM FMV’s calculations and think that Larson win’s this matchup more than 39% of the time. I would bet this down to +130.
