The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday for its only race there this season. Despite the name, Nashville Superspeedway does not use drafting like Daytona, Talladega, or Atlanta. It is a 1.333-mile intermediate track that opened in 2001 as a concrete tri-oval. The turns feature 14 degrees of banking. The front stretch has nine degrees of banking, while the backstretch has six.
Nashville is an unusual track that doesn’t have particularly strong comparable tracks. The concrete surface differentiates the track from most other intermediate tracks. When compared to other intermediate tracks, Nashville is either significantly shorter or significantly flatter. Nashville is flatter than Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, Texas, and Darlington. It’s significantly shorter than Michigan and Indianapolis. It’s also significantly flatter than the two other concrete tracks at Dover and Bristol.
So, when handicapping Nashville, the focus is on a driver’s history at Nashville. However, despite its unique features, when handicapping Nashville recent history in the intermediate package can be quite predictive. So for this week’s best bets I’m turning to a driver who has a strong history at Nashville as well as a number of strong performances at intermediate tracks in 2025.
AJ’s history at Nashville at the Cup level is solid, though not spectacular. In three starts he has finished 19th, 10th, and 11th. At the Xfinity level he has done very well though. He won the 2023 race leading 25 laps. In 2022 he finished 16th, one lap down, but did lead 48 laps. He also has finished in fifth and seventh.
Allmendinger has also been quite strong in the intermediate package in 2025. Excluding Texas, where he was in a crash and Kansas, where his engine failed, he is four of five finishing in the Top 10. AJ finished eighth at Las Vegas, seventh at Homestead, ninth at Bristol, and last week finished fourth at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600.
Last week, at Charlotte, Allmendinger had an average running position of 6.68. His true average running position across the six mile plus intermediates that the Cup Series has run is 12.7. That’s good for seventh best in the Cup Series. In these races, he has run 57% of the laps he has completed inside the Top 10. Removing Darlington, where he simply had a mediocre day, that number jumps to 77.22%.
Allmendinger will have another advantage this week. By virtue of finishing fourth at Charlotte, he will get to make his qualifying run late. Speeds typically pick up over the course of qualifying. So, going out in the last six to seven drivers, rather than the first half of the pack, should be a significant benefit to Allmendinger. A strong qualifying effort would mean both that Allmendinger starts in less traffic and that he has a better pit stall. It also means that there is a greater potential for his odds to get shorter, meaning I want to lock in my bets on Allmendinger now.
Currently FanDuel is offering odds of +380 for Allmendinger to pull of the Top 10. At Win The Race we run 20,000 simulations of each race. This week our simulations project Allmendinger to finish inside the Top 10 in 35.24% of races, well better than the implied odds of 20.83% of +380. I’m buying Allmendinger’s history and recent speed here at Nashville and would bet this down to +250.
After finishing fourth last week at Charlotte and having the fourth best average running position in the race also want to bet on Allmendinger’s upside. Although there are many strong drivers in the Chevy camp, our simulations suggest that books are undervaluing Allmendinger. I’d bet this down to +3500.
