NASCAR is back baby! Sunday afternoon (or sometime Monday depending on mother nature) 41 drivers will start their engines on the 2026 NASCAR season. This year we had tumultuous off season. In December we saw the 23XI and FRM lawsuit vs NASCAR go to trial. Then mid trial the case was settled after several days of evidence. Then just a few weeks ago NASCAR announced the end of the playoff system. Replacing the playoffs is the return of the Chase. Now its time for cars to hit the track for real.
The NASCAR Cup Series season starts off with its “Super Bowl” 500 miles (200 laps) at Daytona International Speedway. Daytona is a 2.5-mile long tri-oval track. The track is banked at 31 degrees in the turns, 18 degrees in the tri-oval, and 3 degrees on the back stretch. Drafting is the name of the game at Daytona. To be successful drivers will have to negotiate the 200 laps inches away from the cars around them. Drivers will need to work together to push each other forward though the draft and ultimately to victory.
The nature of pack racing at Daytona is unforgiving. A minor error can send a driver out of control, causing “the big one” taking out large numbers of cars. In the Gen 7 era (since 2022) at least 17.5% of the cars that start at Daytona are involved in a wreck that send the car to the garage. In the 2022 summer race here 19 of 39 cars were eliminated due to wrecks. So while there is certainly a skill to drafting, drivers will also have to be lucky to finish the race.
The volatility of Daytona means that its hard to predict outcomes here. However, this volatility can also open up value on long shots. Which brings me to my two favorite bets for this year’s race.
Riley Herbst has been a major disappointment in his time at 23XI. In 2025 he failed to record a single Top 10 finish at any track. His best result was a 14th at Texas and his average finish was just over 26th. However, Herbst has shown that in the right circumstances he can get to the Top 10 drafting. In 2023 he finished 10th in the Daytona 500 while running for Rick Ware Racing. Then in 2024 he finished 10th in the Talladega playoff race while running for Front Row Motorsports.
On Wednesday Herbst had a poor qualifying effort. As a result he started 15th in his duel. He did manage a positive pass differential in the Duel though, recording a 13th place finish. Herbst was in the dull duel after we saw chaos at the end of Duel 1, but he kept his car clean and showed he was comfortable in the pack.
Herbst may have disappointed so far with 23XI, but he isn’t in a bad car and he isn’t a bad driver. There is no reason that he should be priced this long for a Top 10. At Win The Race we have Herbst projected to finish inside the Top 10 in just over 18% of our 100,000 simulations of the race.
Our 18.2% Top 10 rate for Herbst is well above the 11.11% implied probability of +800. Given the chaos of Daytona I want to keep a fairly large edge on this bet, so I would bet it down to +600.
Historically Cody Ware has driving what many of us in the industry “affectionally” call a “shitbox.” Rick Ware Racing returned to the Cup Series full time in 2018. Since that time though the team has never had much speed and was only ever a factor at drafting tracks. Even at drafting tracks a Top 10 was considered a very good finish. A Top 5 might as well have been a win for the team. That said, for the 2026 season Rick Ware Racing has moved from Ford to Chevy and now has an alliance with Richard Childress Racing. The alliance with Richard Childress Racing seems to have paid immediate dividends. On Wednesday Cody was able to post a mid pack speed of 182.371mph, good for 26th out of 44 cars.
Despite his strong qualifying speed, Ware did not have a great duel race on Thursday night. He finished 7th out of 23 cars in his race. However, he kept his car clean and will head into Sunday’s Daytona 500 with a car that should clearly be able to keep pace with the pack. The newfound speed from Rick Ware Racing may force Cody to adjust his style. He has historically been towards the back of the pack and has been able to get good finishes by simply staying out of trouble. However, we have seen that Ware can avoid trouble. So its worth taking a flyer on a car that is clearly much better than the ones of years past.
At Win The Race we have Cody Ware finishing inside the Top 10 on Sunday in 17.7% of our 100,000 simulations. At +600, we have plenty of room to be wrong about how strong Ware will be and still have value on this pick. There is less wiggle room for us to be wrong than we have with Herbst, but I would still be ok betting this down to +600 where I’m happy to sprinkle a little on Cody Ware to finish Top 10.
