Best Bet for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway

(Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to intermediate track racing on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Texas is a 1.5-mile quad-oval track. Turns 1 and 2 feature 20 degrees of banking, and Turns 3 and 4 are 24 degrees. The front and back stretches are relatively flat, banked at just five degrees.

Many view Texas quite differently from the other 1.5-mile ovals on the NASCAR circuit. Between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, track officials reconfigured Turns 1 and 2, widening the racing surface from 60 to 80 feet and reducing the banking from 24 to 20 degrees. Unfortunately, the results have not been positive. This is because the changes have resulted in chaotic, caution-filled races. In 2024, the Texas race featured 14 natural cautions and five cars unable to finish due to wrecks. The 2023 race had nine natural cautions and 10 cars that wrecked. In 2022, there were 14 natural cautions and seven cars that wrecked. This is compared to an average of just four natural cautions at other intermediate tracks in 2024.

The 2017 repave also means that Texas has lower tire wear than the other intermediate tracks. This has made passing harder and track position even more important than at other intermediate venues. As such there are some options for teams, such as taking just two tires, that will be available.

Tyler Reddick ladder | +750 to Win, +220 Top 3, +125 Top 5

23XI has been very good at Texas the past two years. In the fall 2023 race, Bubba Wallace led 111 laps and Tyler Reddick led 36 laps. Bubba Wallace was the number one driver in Win The Race True Performance for that race. Last year, Tyler Reddick was the top-rated driver in True Performance, leading 37 laps and finishing fourth. Bubba Wallace also led five laps and finished seventh.

In 2025, at the four tracks using the intermediate package (which include Bristol) Tyler Reddick has the fourth fastest incident adjusted speed. Bubba Wallace is close behind in fifth. Sorted by True Performance Rating Tyler Reddick is ranked fourth.

2025 Win The Race True Performance Lab Intermediate Package sorted by Incident Adjusted Speed
2025 Win The Race True Performance Lab Intermediate Package sorted by True Performance Rating

Reddick also won here in 2022 when he was with Richard Childress Racing. So his history at the track is very strong. The Win The Race Pre-Practice and Qualifying scores have Reddick ranked second.

Win The Race Pre-Practice and Qualifying Scores for Texas Motor Speedway

In the Win The Race Sim FMV simulations, Tyler Reddick has a 17.69% chance to win the race. This translates to fair odds of +465. At +700, we are getting odds that are well clear of this number, even accounting for the potential chaos of this race. We are also getting reasonable value on Reddick’s Top 3 and Top 5 odds. So, rather than going all in on the win, I’m going to ladder Reddick’s Top 5/3/win bets.

Win The Race Pre-Practice and Qualifying SIM FMV

I’m betting a total of 1.6u on Reddick. First, I’m betting .3u to win +750 (Bet to +600) at Caesars Sportsbook. I’m also betting .5u for him to finish Top 3 at +220 (Bet to +175) at Bet365. Finally, I’m .8u on him to finish Top 5 at +125 (Bet to +100) at Bet365.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 31: JGR team owner and NASCAR Hall of Famer, Joe Gibbs looks on in the garage area during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway on October 31, 2025 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Email From Chris Gabehart Claims “Resentment” From Gibbs Family Members Was a “No-Win Situation”

What’s Happening?

An email sent by former Joe Gibbs Racing Competition Director Chris Gabehart claims that resentment towards him from members of the Gibbs family made him feel that the future of JGR was a “no-win situation.”

Last week, Joe Gibbs Racing filed a lawsuit against former Crew Chief and Competition Director Chris Gabehart, claiming that the former Daytona 500 Champion had schemed to steal vital information from the team in the lead-up to his departure from JGR for Spire Motorsports.

Not even ten days since JGR filed this lawsuit, the two have continued to trade barbs and accusations back and forth through the court system.

In a filing earlier this week, Gabehart accused the team of misleading him in his duties as competition director in 2025, and specifically calling out JGR’s No. 54 team, driven by Joe Gibbs’ grandson Ty, alleging that the team received “differential treatment.”

Friday, an email sent to JGR CFO Tim Carmichael by Gabehart in November 2025 (released as part of this lawsuit) showed just how uncomfortable he had grown working at JGR during his tenure as Competition Director, with the industry veteran stating that Ty Gibbs and his mother, Heather, held “resentment” towards Gabehart.

The now former Competition Director went on to say in this email that, as the two were the future bosses of JGR, “I’m afraid that leaves me in a no-win situation.”

These exchanges, including the claims made by Gibbs in his filing earlier this week, have swept fans into a whirlwind of sorts, with the two sides even meeting in court today for the lawsuit’s first official hearing.

Of course, Gabehart’s claims about the state of operations at JGR pale in comparison to the accusations made by the Gibbs team in their initial lawsuit.

On Tuesday, the team even added Spire Motorsports, Gabehart’s current employer, as a co-defendant, and requested the court force Gabehart to sit out at least the 18 months since his termination before doing any work in NASCAR similar to his role at JGR.

The team is also asking that any information procured by Spire from Gabehart be returned, though the CEO of TWG Motorsports, which owns Spire, Dan Towriss, told Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports Friday that “Spire doesn’t want data from Joe Gibbs Racing. It doesn’t have data from Joe Gibbs Racing. No point in time has it had data from Joe Gibbs Racing.”

Alongside Spire, Gabehart adamantly denied any wrongdoing in a post to social media last week, saying, “I feel compelled to speak out today and forcefully and emphatically deny these frivolous and retaliatory claims.”

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7 Reasons Racetracks Die

A few years ago, I looked at the racetracks preserved on iRacing that no longer exist in real life. After digging deeper, I expected to find one common reason they all shut down. Instead, each one tells a completely different story — from booming cities and land value spikes to ownership changes, broken promises, and even mysteries that still don’t have clear answers.

  • Did Myrtle Beach Speedway simply get swallowed by a rapidly growing city?
  • How did the death of one passionate owner seal the fate of USA International Speedway?
  • Was Auto Club Speedway really closed for a short-track revival — or just prime California real estate?
  • And why did places like Concord Speedway and the Chicago Street Race disappear for completely different reasons?

Some tracks were pushed out by urban development. Some lost the one person fighting to keep them alive. Others faded due to declining support — or were never meant to last forever in the first place. No two closures are the same, and that’s what makes this deep dive so fascinating.

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NASCAR’s “Full Speed” Docuseries is moving to Prime Video

What’s Happening?

NASCAR’s documentary series “Full Speed,” which used to live on Netflix, had its first two seasons look back at entire playoff runs. But now, NASCAR is shifting the series to Amazon Prime Video for its third season, and the scope of the series will also shift to new storylines.

Dropping on March 5, the new season is aimed at zooming in on one event: the 2026 Daytona 500. Instead of a multi-episode run, this time it’s a single-episode documentary that goes all in on one race.

The film will follow big names and storylines from the Daytona 500. It will spotlight the winner, Tyler Reddick, and lean into driver storylines around the weekend. That includes Kyle Busch trying to get his groove back, Brad Keselowski clawing his way back after a broken leg, Connor Zilisch being pushed as the next big thing, and Noah Gragson bringing chaos wherever he goes.

Some fans might question the move away from Netflix, especially after Season 1 pulled in 3.4 million views in the first half of 2024. Then in 2025, the docuseries clocked 900,000 views after its early May release and added another 200,000 between July and December.

But with Prime Video stepping in as one of NASCAR’s broadcast partners, moving the series lines up with a bigger play to keep content under one roof.

Amazon has already dipped into NASCAR storytelling with projects like the docuseries Earnhardt about Dale Earnhardt. Moving Full Speed to Prime follows the same playbook. And for fans who still haven’t seen previous installments, the first two seasons are also heading over to Prime Video.

Fan Reactions

However, Reddit fans are divided in their opinions about the decision. Some fans actually get why NASCAR changed the format and platform, while a chunk of fans think leaving Netflix is risky because Netflix is where casual viewers stumble into shows. Others push back, pointing out that Prime actually has a massive reach in the U.S. and strong marketing muscle.

While one fan commented, “Makes sense. I highly doubt they were gonna make a new season around a points format they don’t use anymore,” another stated, “Idk the semantics and numbers and everything behind it so I’m probably talking out of my ass….buttttttt….at what point does nascar take the less money for the exposure. You need to be on Netflix, people watch Netflix. People don’t watch Amazon video as much. Who’s gonna watch this that isn’t a nascar fan already. You have a higher chance of getting people lost on Netflix than lost on Amazon Prime Video.”

One fan commented on the news, saying, “100%. I have Amazon Prime and Netflix. AP is a train wreck for videos especially now with their ad program with videos. I steer clear because Netflix is still ad free.” Another fan supported NASCAR’s move, saying, “Prime actually has slightly more subscribers in the USA and in my opinion is better at marketing. It’s a lateral move.”

Another backed NASCAR, stating, “Most NASCAR fans will find some way to be on prime in the month of June. I think they are counting on people watching it then if they have not already seen it. Similar to the Earnhardt documentary that dropped in June last year.”

Another fan comment implied something less glamorous yet very real, pointing out that the Netflix seasons didn’t see a surge in viewership. The first season did okay, but later numbers dipped: “Netflix didn’t seem to work that well for the 2 playoff seasons.”

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