My betting card for the NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 remains light this week. Instead, I’m turning to the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series for my best bet. The Truck Series also races in Indianapolis, but instead of the 2.5-mile oval, they’ll compete at the .686-mile Indianapolis Raceway Park.
Martinsville stands alone as a unique track, so this marks the second true short, flat track event of the season. The first came a little over two months ago at North Wilkesboro. Indianapolis closely resembles North Wilkesboro, though it’s slightly shorter at .686 miles compared to .625 miles at North Wilkesboro. It also features flatter turns, just 12 degrees of banking versus 14 at North Wilkesboro. Because of these similarities, I’m targeting a driver the books seem to undervalue. He ran well at North Wilkesboro in May and delivered strong performances at both tracks in 2024.
Last year Enfinger finished Top 5 in four of the five short flat track races. Although he had a poor race at Milwaukee, he was elite at the other four events. Earlier this year at North Wilkesboro Enfinger put up another top tier performance. He finished fifth and had the second best driver rating of the event.
At Win The Race our 20,000 simulations of this race have Enfinger finishing Top 5 39.67% of the time. We have Enfinger essentially neck and neck with darling of the sportsbooks Layne Riggs. Even if we are overly bullish on Enfinger, at +250 we have plenty of room to be wrong and still be making a good bet. Given that Enfinger has consistently qualified in the Top 10 at short flat tracks I want to go ahead and lock in this value now. I would bet this down to +200.
