This weekend Major League Baseball has taken over Bristol Motor Speedway for the Speedway classic. In a bit of “fair is fair,” NASCAR is heading to the home state of the Field of Dreams, Iowa. After finding last week’s best bet in the Truck Series, this week I am turning to the Xfinity Series.
Iowa is a .875-mile D shaped oval. The turns are progressively banked from 12-14 degrees. The frontstretch is banked at 10 degrees and the backstretch is banked at four degrees. Last year the track was partially repaved in the turns.
The closest track to Iowa in terms of size, banking, and speed of races, is Phoenix Raceway. Phoenix is a one-mile long dog-leg oval with banking of nine and 11 degrees in the turns. Speeds at Phoenix and Iowa both top out in the low to mid-130 mile per hour range.
Secondary comparable tracks are Richmond, which is just slightly shorter at 0.75-miles long and has nearly identical banking. However, given the significant tire wear at Richmond speeds there are significantly slower. In the Truck Series Indianapolis Raceway Park and the Milwaukee Mile have similar lengths and banking. Finally, in terms of general short flat tracks there is some correlation with Iowa and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Taylor Gray has never raced at Iowa. However he has been a rock star at short flat tracks in his short career. He is also in top tier Joe Gibbs Racing equipment.
Last year in his Xfinity Series debut he raced from the back of the field to a third place finish at Richmond. Earlier this year at Phoenix he qualified ninth and finished sixth. Gray has four Truck Series starts at the tracks I’m using to handicap this race. In this starts Gray has three Top 10, two Top 5, and a Top 3 finish.
This year the 54 JGR car is a re-number of the 81 JGR car from 2024. At Iowa Chandler Smith piloted the 81 to an eighth place finish. Smith won at Phoenix in the spring as well as Richmond. He also finished fifth at Phoenix in the fall, despite not being in the Championship 4 group.
The combined history of Taylor Gray and his 54 team mean I’m very high on Gray this week. Our simulations at Win The Race are high on Gray for all of these seasons. We do show value on Gray to win but give the stacked field, I want to drop down to his Top 3 and Top 5 odds. SIM FMV has Gray finishing Top 5 in 43.97% of the simulations and Top 3 31.11% of the time. Both of these numbers are well clear of the implied odds of +190 and +360 which are available at Bet365.
As the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season gets underway, The Daily Downforce is once again tracking how fans feel about race broadcasts throughout the year, just as we did last year. This ratings tracker exists to capture fan feedback in a clear, consistent way across the entire season for each TV partner.
After each Cup Series race weekend, we will post a fan poll asking one simple question: “How would you rate this weekend’s Cup Series broadcast?” And fans can vote and comment based on their overall viewing experience. This article will be updated weekly with the most recent race’s numbers added to the tracker.
Participation is quick and open to everyone.
| Week | Network | Race | Votes | Good | Average | Bad | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FOX | Bowman Gray Clash | 368 | 16% | 43% | 42% | Check the Poll HERE |
| 2 | FOX | Daytona 500 | 989 | 42% | 46% | 12% | Check the Poll HERE |
Remember to follow The Daily Downforce on X to catch each weekly poll, share your thoughts, and be part of the conversation.
A new trailer revealed that NASCAR will be a part of The Crew Motorfest’s upcoming free season 9 update.
Will you be playing The Crew for this new update? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
Denny Hamlin defends Riley Herbst, Brad Keselowski is furious, and Kyle Busch leaves everyone debating what it means to truly compete for a Daytona 500. The final lap at Daytona International Speedway sparked multiple completely different controversies that say a lot about modern superspeedway racing.
At superspeedways, instinct rules everything. Herbst reacted late, Keselowski paid the price, and Hamlin backed his guy. Meanwhile, Busch lifted from 25th, avoided the wreck, and gained ten spots, a move that looks smart in hindsight but could have backfired badly. In a new points-heavy format, are drivers thinking differently? We break down both moments, what they really mean, and whether everyone involved might actually have a point. Plus, early Cup Series power rankings to wrap it up.
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