This weekend NASCAR will return to Chicagoland for the first time since 2019. Chicagoland is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 18-20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns. Unique among 1.5-mile tri- and quad-ovals the backstretch at Chicagoland is a continuous turn with five degrees of banking. The frontstretch is banked at 11 degrees. Recent images post by the track suggest that tire wear will be a significant factor this weekend.
The Goodyear tire test from April supports the idea that the race will feature high tire wear. After the test all of the drivers noted that there had been significant wear. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney both stated that they could run all lanes meaning there should be multiple grooves during the race. However, Larson was also cautious, and observed that the bumps in turns three and four presented a significant challenge to changing grooves in those turns.
Given that its been half a decade since we have seen a race at Chicagoland I want to be judicious in allocating my bankroll before practice and qualifying. Friday evening we will have a full hour of practice. Teams will have three sets of tires for that practice. So I expect that after Friday we should have a much better picture of who will have the best cars on Sunday. Until that time the Win The Race model is focused on driver performance on the 1.5-mile ovals in 2026 and historical performance on high wear tracks like Darlington and Homestead-Miami.
The Win The Race model has been high on Buescher pretty much every week so far in 2026 and this weekend is no exception. While Buescher and the rest of RFK had a down week at Sonoma, I expect them to bounce back this weekend.
At the six races in the intermediate package in 2026 Buescher has finished Top 10 five times and was running towards the front at Charlotte before he was damaged. Buescher has also been the Top Ford in three of six races.
In addition, while Darlington is using the short track configuration for 2026, its high tire wear is relevant to this weekend. In that race Buescher finished ninth. His teammate/team owner Brad Keselwoski finished second and was the Top Ford in that race. Keselowski was also the Top Ford at Kansas, finishing sixth in that race. In short, RFK and Buescher have been bringing speed to the track when running in the 670HP intermediate package.
Buescher’s Cup Series history at Chicagoland isn’t great. His best finish here is 18th, one lap down. However, those starts were in Front Row Motorsports and JTG-Daugherty Racing equipment, which are a significant step down in quality from his current RFK ride. His Xfinity (now O’Reilly) starts show much more promise, with three Top 10 finishes in four starts.
Across the six races in 2026 using the intermediate package Chris Buescher has been the best Ford. He has the best cumulative average running position 10.73. The best driver rating, at 93.57. He also has the best average finish at 11.17 and best average start at 7.83. As noted above, Buescher also has five Top 10 finishes in the six races. The only other Ford who comes close to Buescher’s stats across the six races is Ryan Blaney, who has four Top 10 finishes, but well behind Buescher in all other stats. Blaney has an average running position of 14.09, a driver rating of 83.22, an average finish of 12.5, and an average start of 13.5
Blaney should be a strong contender this week, but the Win The Race model has Buescher as the clear favorite in the Top Ford market. Our simulations have him finishing as the Top Ford 39.6% of the time. That is well clear of the 21.74% implied probability of +360. So I’m willing to bite now before we see cars on track. I’d be comfortable with this all the way down to +250.
