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Are This Year’s Playoffs As Chaotic as Predicted?

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What’s Happening?

NASCAR’s Playoffs enter the Charlotte Roval this weekend. With back-to-back upset race winners, there is a chance for a third. In fact, the number of non-playoff driver wins is unprecedented in NASCAR Playoff history. But didn’t we expect this to happen?

  • The NASCAR Playoffs are how NASCAR crowns its year-end Champion. Throughout the 26-race regular season, a race win locks you into the 16-driver field. At the end of this regular season, NASCAR ropes off the top 16 for ten races.
  • NASCAR breaks those ten races into three rounds of three races and one championship finale. In each round, four drivers are eliminated based on points. Much like the regular season, a win advances you into the next round. This rule means that if you win in the final round, you will win the Cup Series Championship.
  • This year’s playoff saw massive changes to the schedule, with the most diverse group of tracks in NASCAR Playoff history. This scheduling led to speculation about all the wild ideas of what could happen in the 2024 playoffs.

2024: Shake Ups and Upsets

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Most fans expected the 2024 NASCAR playoffs to be chaotic. Due to the Olympic break shuffling the tail-end of the NASCAR season, the playoffs added one more drafting track, Atlanta Motor Speedway, and one more road course, Watkins Glen International.

These races added excitement and chaos, as the uncertainty of who would win sparked debate among fans. Would there be playoff upsets? Would a non-Cup series regular win in the playoffs be possible? Could we see an underdog go all the way?

Entering the playoffs, there were back-to-back upset winners. Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton shook up the playoff lineup quite a bit with their wins at Daytona and Darlington. But two races into the playoffs, 2024 looked wild.

In just those two races, Joey Logano won an Atlanta race that saw multiple playoff drivers involved in accidents, and Chris Buescher won at Watkins Glen. Now, five races in, there have been three non-playoff driver wins, a first for the NASCAR playoffs.

2024 Non-Playoff Qualifying, Playoff Race Winners
  • Chris Buescher – Watkins Glen – Race Two
  • Ross Chastain – Kansas – Race Four
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Talladega – Race Five

With one race to go, drivers now face an unpredictable foe in the newly revamped Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

These upsets match the chaotic tone of what most expected the 2024 playoffs to be. However, there is one notable thing about this year’s playoffs that suggest it might not be as crazy as we think it is.

The Usual Suspects

There is one major factor in play despite all these upset wins. Remember all those upset winners from the regular season? For the most part, they haven’t survived the round-to-round playoff eliminations.

Somehow, in spite of all the chaos, drama, and upset winners involved in this year’s playoffs, those drivers most expect to see at the top of the standings remain.

You go as far as to credit this chaos with preventing several upset advancements from happening. With less than ten laps to go at Talladega, underdog Austin Cindric looked to be heading to the Round of Eight. Before, an unexpected shove turned him into the field, causing the biggest wreck in NASCAR Cup series history.

In fact, the most shocking eliminations might be the winless Martin Truex, Jr, Ty Gibbs, and Brad Keselowski. However, entering yet another elimination race, those underdog championship hopefuls are on their last legs. As typical as this sounds, it does resonate for the future.

Next year‘s playoffs are seeing another massive overhaul. Major track shuffling in, out, and around next year will surely make this year appear tame. However, if we can learn anything from this year, that might not be the case, and we might not see an upset champion like some worry we could.

No one knows what next year will be like, but this year may serve as a small window into that uncertain future.


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Kauy Ostlien

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