Another Playoff Upset in Chicago? | In-Season Challenge Picks

NASCAR returns to Chicago for the Fourth of July weekend, and it’s shaping up to be far more than a fireworks show. With just eight races left in the regular season, the street course provides a huge chance for surprise winners and playoff shakeups. Eric breaks down all the favorites, wildcards, and potential upsets for this unpredictable weekend—including a full slate of head-to-head picks for the in-season tournament. It’s time to make some bold calls.

• SVG is the odds-on favorite again, after dominating in Mexico City and nearly winning Chicago last year
• Michael McDowell says SVG is “beatable”—and his street stats suggest he could back it up
• AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, and Christopher Bell are among the top challengers
• Rain is in the forecast again, which means strategy, tire choice, and chaos will define the race

The preview also highlights a historic detail: with 41 cars on the entry list, someone will miss the show. That hasn’t happened outside Daytona in seven years. Eric evaluates who’s most likely to DNQ and where the newcomers like Will Brown and Katherine Legge stack up. Then it’s on to the in-season bracket challenge, where he picks winners in eight matchups—Logano’s out, Ty Dillon’s still alive, and underdogs are making noise. As always, Eric blends stats with gut calls, especially when evaluating road course trends, wet weather unpredictability, and long-simmering rivalries like Bowman vs. Bubba.

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