What’s Happening?

With the two superspeedway races in the rear-view mirror, the NASCAR Cup Series gears up for what some may consider the first “Normal” race of the 2024 season at Las Vegas. The spring race at Las Vegas has a knack for prophesizing how the future NASCAR Cup Series season will go. What gives this race the ability to foreshadow what’s to come?

• Las Vegas Motor Speedway opened in 1998, and it has had at least one date early in the season ever since. Usually, the first race falls in early March around the 3rd race weekend of the season, which often lends itself to forming the first narratives of the season.
• Las Vegas has traditionally been either the first or one of the first “Intermediate track” races of the season. With how common these types of tracks are on the schedule, could that play a role in how big this race is in predicting the future?
• Fans love to form narratives surrounding the season, and many of those narratives have their genesis in early-season races such as Las Vegas.

The History of Spring Las Vegas Winners

Looking throughout the entire history of Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the drivers who win here during the spring go on to have good or great seasons. Of the 26 spring race winners at Las Vegas, 22 (84.6%) finished in the top 10 in the final standings. Even further, 20 (76.9%) drivers ended up in the top 5 in the final standings, with 7 (27%) winning the Championship at the season’s end.

The only drivers to finish outside of the top 10 in the final standings still enjoyed solid overall seasons before a disappointing points finish. 2009 winner Kyle Busch and 2016 winner Brad Keselowski both won 3 more races apiece the rest of the season after their Vegas jackpot. 2022 winner Alex Bowman was injured after advancing to the Round of 12. 2002 winner, Sterling Marlin, led the points throughout the summer before his season ended early with an injury.

Even looking at the Playoff era (since 2014), Las Vegas spring winners tend to make it far in the Playoffs. Out of these victors, 6 of 11 (55%) advanced to the Championship 4 at the end of the season, with Martin Truex Jr. in 2017 and Kyle Larson in 2021 taking home the Championship. Of those who did not make the Championship 4, Brad Keselowski in 2014 and Joey Logano in 2019 were the first ones trailing the Final 4 in the standings.

For an even more recent, look no further than 2023. Kyle Larson and William Byron combined to lead 239 of 271 laps in the 2023 spring race, and both drivers made the Championship 4. Byron also led the series in wins in 2023 with 6.

Compare these statistics to those who win the Daytona 500. Only 54% of Daytona 500 winners since 2001 finished in the top 10 in the final points standings. Denny Hamlin is currently the only Daytona 500 winner in the Playoff era to make the Championship 4 in the same season. He did so in 2019 and 2020. For more detailed information, read the article below.

Whereas Daytona does not give great insight into how the season will progress, Las Vegas paints a clear picture of who the contenders truly are. If a driver wins at Las Vegas, that bodes well for their season almost every time.

Why Does Las Vegas Have This Tendency?

Las Vegas is a more common NASCAR track type than superspeedways like Daytona and Atlanta. The draft and restricted engines at superspeedways tend to equalize the field, and the massive crashes thin out the field to where the races become more about survival. Las Vegas is a more “Normal” NASCAR race.

Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile race track that is very similar to other race tracks on the calendar. The racing is a lot more spread out with the draft not being nearly as effective at keeping the field compact. As a result, the faster cars and better-equipped race teams can pull away and separate themselves from the other teams.

The vast majority of NASCAR Cup Series races tend to function in this way. The two most common “wild card” types of races are superspeedways and road courses, which only make up 11 of the 36 races on the calendar. This means that 25 of 36 races generally function similarly to Las Vegas, where the top drivers and teams win races virtually every time.

However, this year’s NASCAR Cup Series schedule is very wild, particularly in the Playoffs. Could we see this trend shifting in 2024?

Could This Trend Shift?

In previous years, the Playoff schedule was made up of primarily intermediate race tracks. This included the final race at Homestead-Miami up until 2020 when it moved to Phoenix. There was not a road course in the Playoffs until 2018, and up until this year, there was only one superspeedway race.

In 2024, the Playoff schedule looks very different. The first round and second round both have a superspeedway and a road course. The final round calms down a bit with two intermediate track races before the penultimate race at Martinsville, but, getting there is a gauntlet.

Look at the surprise winners at tracks like Daytona we looked at earlier. Look at surprise winners on road courses in 2023 such as SVG at the Chicago Street Race, A.J. Allmendinger at the Charlotte Roval, and Michael McDowell at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The Playoffs could become a lot more chaotic.

Ultimately, time will tell if this trend continues. Regardless, Las Vegas Motor Speedway has historically been one of NASCAR’s greatest fortune tellers.