What’s Happening?

The new hot topic to fix short-track racing in NASCAR is tire wear. Bringing an extremely soft tire that wears out quicker could be the more economical solution if NASCAR is dead set on not increasing horsepower. Will it fix the short-track package?

• The most popular solution to short track racing in recent years was increasing horsepower. Unfortunately, NASCAR has remained steadfast in keeping horsepower as-is.
• A banger short track race at Bristol opened drivers and fans’ eyes to another solution, tire wear. However, is it actually the solution that people hope it can be?
• Fans and drivers alike have been heavily critical of the short track package since the Next-Gen car was introduced. Impatience is growing, and many feel it’s time for big changes.

The Benefits of Increased Tire Wear

One of the biggest problems with short-track racing in the Next-Gen era is just how close together the field is. For example, in qualifying at Martinsville last weekend, the difference between the pole winner and the last chartered entry was around 0.5 seconds. Auto Racing Analytics also showcased how close in speed the cars were in the below social media post.

If the cars are all running the same lap time, it becomes impossible to pass. There has to be variability in speed for cars to pass, and tire wear helps create that variability.

Look at the 2023 All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro for example. Kyle Larson went from last to first thanks to a brand new set of tires as the field was still on old tires. This was created by a tire that wore out, which allowed Larson to pull a different strategy than the rest of the field.

Now, creating a tire that wears out isn’t a solution in itself. If a tire wears out the same no matter how a driver drives the car, the speeds remain equal as long as drivers stay on the same pit strategy.

What a tire has to do is force drivers to manage the tires. The drivers that punish the tires early in the run pay the price late in the run and vice versa. This is what happened, albeit in an extreme way at Bristol. The variability in lap time was created by tire management, which made for an incredible race.

It’s not just about creating a tire that wears out, it’s forcing drivers to manage a tire over the course of a long run. The variable lap times combined with the tire wear result in comers and goers, a lack of grip, and more mistakes. This creates the opportunity for passing.

However, does giving drivers a tire that wears out solve all of the problems? There is a cautionary tale that shows that tire wear doesn’t solve every issue.

Is It a Fix All?

Tracks that wear out tires don’t automatically produce more compelling racing. For example, remember old Atlanta before the repave? The track ate tires for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, and saved inner liners for dessert.

However, were all of the races with massive tire wear at Atlanta actually good? Looking at Jeff Gluck’s “Was It a Good Race?” poll, this is an idea of how fans felt about old Atlanta races between 2017 and 2021.

Typically, the average of Jeff Gluck’s polls is somewhere in the high 60 or low 70%, which means that 4 of these 6 races (66.7%) could be considered below average by the fanbase. High tire wear does not automatically mean the races are going to be good.

Coincidentally, the Gen-6 car had a bad intermediate track package, and that wasn’t saved by tire wear. Eventually, the drivers figured out how to manage tires at Atlanta, and the races became less compelling.

All that to say an increase in tire wear can do nothing but help the short track package. Can it be the fix-all solution that people are hoping it can be? That remains to be seen.