What’s Happening?

As hard as it may be to believe, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are only four races away. The sense of urgency and intensity is ratcheting up, and many drivers are in danger of missing the Playoffs entirely. Here is a look at the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff bubble and those who are safe alongside those in danger.

• The NASCAR Cup Series Playoff field includes 16 drivers. To qualify, a driver must have won a race during the regular season or be among the highest-placed winless drivers in the regular season standings.
• The “Win and you’re in” style format often changes the Playoff bubble. One upset win could take a driver from safe to fighting for their Playoff lives.
• This season, multiple upset wins have moved the Playoff bubble further up the points standings. As a result, some big-name drivers could easily miss the Playoffs.

Locked In (Race Winners)

The Drivers: Kyle Larson (4 Wins), Denny Hamlin (3 Wins), William Byron (3 Wins), Christopher Bell (3 Wins), Ryan Blaney (2 Wins), Chase Elliott (1 Win), Tyler Reddick (1 Win), Brad Keselowski (1 Win), Alex Bowman (1 Win), Joey Logano (1 Win), Daniel Suarez (1 Win), and Austin Cindric (1 Win)

The Breakdown: With four races left in the regular season and 12 winners, having more than 16 winners in the regular season is impossible, meaning all race winners are officially locked into the Playoffs. For each of these drivers, it’s all about gaining as many Playoff points as possible for the Playoff run. Since NASCAR went to the current Playoff format in 2017, the top seed has made the Championship 4 in six of seven seasons, and two of the top three have made it in five of seven years, meaning these Playoff points are incredibly valuable.

For drivers outside of the top-10 in points (Logano, Suarez, and Cindric), the best way to earn Playoff points is through stage wins (1 point) and race wins (5 points). For the rest of this group, it’s about that plus finishing as high in the regular season standings as possible to earn those bonus points (15 for 1st, 10 for 2nd, 8 for 3rd, …1 for 10th). The Regular Season Championship battle is a tight one with four drivers within one race of the top: Larson (Leader), Elliott (-10), Reddick (-15), and Hamlin (-43).

Feeling Pretty Good (Drivers In on Points)

The Drivers: Martin Truex Jr. (+108) and Ty Gibbs (+42)

Breakdown: While it’s still possible to get four new winners outside the Playoff grid, it’s incredibly unlikely. Of the final four races on the calendar (Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington), only one is a true “Wild Card” race, meaning that those who are in the Playoffs on points with a decent enough cushion simply need to stay out of trouble these final few races.

Martin Truex Jr. could lock himself into the Playoffs on points before the regular season finale at Darlington, depending on how many new winners occur. He is also fighting for regular season standing bonus points, being in the top 10 in points. While Gibbs has struggled recently, a few good finishes should keep him out of danger since he has a two-driver cushion on top of the points cushion in the standings. Don’t expect these drivers to go all-out for wins until their Playoff position is guaranteed.

In Danger (Drivers on The Bubble)

The Drivers: Chris Buescher (+17), Ross Chastain (+7), and Bubba Wallace (-7)

Breakdown: Each of these drivers is firmly on the bubble, and one bad race can spell doom for their season. Also, any new winner in these final few races moves the cutline up, making this bubble a moving target.

Of the drivers in this situation, Bubba Wallace has easily performed the best in recent weeks, as he has an 8.8 average finish with four finishes of 13th or better and three top-10s in the last four races. He’s gone from roughly a full race out of the Playoffs to within striking distance of it. Both Chastain (26.5 avg. finish) and Buescher (14.5 Avg. Finish) have struggled recently, and Wallace is closing fast. A win would solve everything for these three drivers, but they must be careful when chasing checkered flags.

Panic Mode (Must Win Territory)

The Drivers: Every Winless Diver Below 16th in points, notables include Chase Briscoe (-83), Kyle Busch (-112), Michael McDowell (-148), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-177), and Erik Jones (-223)

Breakdown: These drivers have to go all-out for wins and look for opportunities in the final few races. However, as we mentioned, these final few races are not typically places we see surprise winners. That being said, it’s still possible for an upset.

Every driver knows they can win at Daytona, but superspeedway specialists Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Corey LaJoie know that could be their last shot. While Darlington is not traditionally considered a wild card race, Erik Jones is a two-time Southern 500 winner, making him a dark horse. Ford has won nine consecutive races in Michigan, meaning that Ford drivers like the SHR quartet for the Front Row Motorsports duo have to view Michigan as an opportunity. Richmond is a short track, and short track aces like Kyle Busch, Josh Berry, and Ryan Preece must have that race circled.

What do you think about all this? Let us know on Discord or X what your take is, and don’t forget you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and even YouTube.