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With the 2024 NASCAR season coming to a close in a few months, it’s a good time to look back at the moments this season that didn’t come to fruition that everyone thought otherwise. As usual, there are predictions made that the fanbase mostly agrees on that turn into reality (i.e., Kyle Larson making the playoffs or Chase Elliott having a bounce-back season). But there are others that fans would have considered as locks for the season, only for the opposite to happen, and their predictions are rendered obsolete. Some drivers missed the playoffs that everyone thought would, or a race played a more significant role in the season than otherwise. Let’s look at some wrong predictions for the 2024 NASCAR season.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. From 2013 to 2023, Kyle Busch made the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in 11 consecutive seasons. After a three-win season in a playoff berth in his first year with Richard Childress Racing, it looked to be the same song and dance for Rowdy come 2024. Many considered Busch as a playoff lock, given his past success. But it’s been a rough skid for the pairing since the start of the season, one where Busch could face his first winless season in the Cup Series.
The Las Vegas native has had his worst Cup season since his rookie year in 2005. With RCR struggling overall this season, Busch has not only failed to win a race so far but has also missed the playoffs for the first time since 2012. A lack of speed from RCR and 10 races outside the top 10 from Charlotte to Richmond have put Busch 20th in points after the regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway. While the team has picked up speed since the Olympic Break, there is no guarantee that Busch will find victory lane this year. A two-time champion with 63 wins should be considered a lock to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the case for Kyle Busch in 2024.
On the opposite end of the playoff drivers, who predicted Harrison Burton to make the playoffs, let alone win a race. Burton was one of the worst drivers in the Cup Series throughout the 2024 regular season, sitting last among full-time drivers for most of the year. But all it takes in one win to change your season, and that’s exactly what happened with Burton during the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona. Burton made a last-lap pace on Busch to win his first Cup Series race and lock himself into the playoffs. After being let go by the Wood Brothers for 2025, Burton found some redemption under the lights at Daytona.
If you looked at the majority of pre-season playoff brackets, chances are most, if not all, did not have Burton making the playoffs this year. For most of the year, that looked to be the case. Burton had struggled during his Cup tenure, and he was one of the last drivers many would pencil in for a playoff berth. But 2024 has proved to be a wild season and many would agree in terms of busting playoff brackets, the main perpetrator was Harrison Burton winning at Daytona.
This was the biggest bombshell of the 2024 season. Despite a downward turn in performance, many assumed that Stewart-Haas Racing would remain in the Cup Series for many years. So when the news dropped that SHR would close its doors at the end of the season, it left many with their jaws dropped to the floor.
From 2009 to 2024, SHR has been one of NASCAR’s premiere teams. They won two Cup championships in 2011 and 2014 and an Xfinity Series championship in 2023. To see one of the top teams in the sport shut down is something no one could have predicted. While the last few seasons were not the best, they still went out with a win in the Southern 500 and a chance to win more championships with Chase Briscoe and Cole Custer. As for wrong predictions for the 2024 season, this one has to take the cake, cause no one saw this coming.
Finally, let’s discuss Trackhouse Racing. Many predicted the 2022 runner-ups would return to the postseason for the third straight year. But most would’ve penciled in Ross Chastain as the driver to represent Trackhouse in the postseason, not Daniel Suarez. It turned out to be the exact opposite. In the iconic photo finish, Suarez locked himself into the playoffs at Atlanta in the spring. With one car locked in, the focus shifted toward the No. 1 team for the rest of the regular season. Chastain failed to find victory lane all year. And with drivers like Suarez, Burton, Austin Cindric, and Chase Briscoe winning their way to playoff spots, Chastain was the odd man out at Trackhouse.
After finishing second in the championship in 2022 and 10th in 2023, Chastain’s making the playoffs, let alone winning a race, should’ve been a given. So what happened? Trackhouse took a step back in performance. They did not have the speed they had in 2022 and 2023 this season, culminating in his worst season with the team. What many predicted to be one of the safest picks in 2024 turned over its head when Ross Chastain failed to make the playoffs.
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